Preview: Blazers versus Wizards

Last year on my wife’s birthday (also the day we got engaged), I watched the Blazers fall and break into pieces against the Wizards. A month later Nate McMillan was gone. I hate to feel responsible, but I do. That day had reached its allotment of good things. Today I sit here watching the Blazers return to earth having lost five in a row, now confronting the Wizards again. This game is a must win, the fans want to believe and the Blazers need to win to avoid spiraling out of control once more.

In their last meeting, the Wizards beat the Blazers 84-82 when J.J. Hickson missed a 5-footer, and they did so without guard John Wall. With Wall’s return this D.C. club has won three of its last five. I said last game that Lillard needed to break out of his slump after being held to 13 points against Cleveland. He did just that, chipping in 26 points and 10 assists in a losing effort against the Bucks. Look for a battle of these two young point guards to dictate where this game goes.

Stats:

Wizards Offensive Effeciency with out John Wall: 93.1 (30th)

Wizards Offensive Effeciency with John Wall: 104.1 (10th)

In January: Bradley Beal: 18.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 3.1 apg

In January: Damian Lillard: 18.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 7.3 apg

Starters:

Washington: John Wall (PG), Bradley Beal (SG,)Martell Webster (SF), Nenê (PF), Emeka Okafor (C)

Portland: Damian Lillard (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), J.J. Hickson (C)

Possible Headlines:

Wizards Conjure Up Win

Blazers Fireball Spell Too Much For Wizards

Wall and Lillard excite and delight

Preview: Blazers versus Bucks

After a few days off and a four game losing streak the 20-19 Blazers look to face off against the 20-18 Bucks, who won their last game against the Suns. Both teams come in after some time off, and are relatively evenly matched on both sides of the ball (The Blazers have slightly worse points allowed and slightly better points scored). Brandon Jennings has been on a roll though, enough so that he was handed out an Eastern Conference Player of the Week Award. When he plays well, this Bucks team seems to win. There shouldn’t be any surprises to this game, just hoping that our starters can beat their starters and bench. I also don’t have any jokes, something about the Bucks makes me forget.

Tonight, I’m hoping for a bounce-back effort from Lillard, who was been averaging 12.7 points per game in the last three losses. If he can return to form, it should lessen the scoring load placed onto the other four starters. LaMarcus Aldridge, in particular, is balling hard right now, putting up 25 and 10 over the last three. Monta Ellis has been supplementing Jennings’ play and chipping in about 18 per game. The Bucks big man, Larry Sanders, currently plays blocking machine, averaging a league high 3.2 on the season, which could give fits to J.J. Hickson as he battles for those easy put-backs.

Stats for Stats Sake:

Portland Points Per Game: 96.9 (14th) Milwaukee Points Per Game: 96.3 (16th)

Portland Points Allowed: 99.0 (20th) Milwaukee Points Allowed: 97.4 (16th)

Damian Lillard Points versus East: 16.3

Brandon Jennings Points versus West: 19.7

Starters:

Milwaukee: Monta Ellis (PG), Branding Jennings (SG), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (SF), Ersan Illyasova (PF), Larry Sanders (C)

Portland: Damian Lillard (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), J.J. Hickson (C)

Possible Headlines:

Bucks and Blazers too evenly matched and bore people to death

Blazers tan Bucks’ hides

Bucks gore Blazers

Weekend Update: The Bench

We experienced some technical difficulties last weekend. We lost this post, but were able to recover it.

Portland’s lack of depth was a much derided factor at the outset of the season and is still terrible. Every broadcast I watch ends up mentioning the fact the Blazers bench is terrible and it’s to the point I must invoke the proverbial dead horse, although I think the dead horse presents a much better defense per 100 possessions and somehow much better points per game than the actual bench players. It’s no secret that our own Sean Highkin despises Sasha Pavlovic. But Sasha can’t be blamed for everything because being the worst bench in the NBA is a team effort. Luckily, Terry Stotts realizes this and keeps a few starters all the time. This is our not-so-secret KFC recipe for success, a dash of bench and HEAVY minutes for the starters. The times when our bench appears serviceable are definitely there, but ultimately we have the 30th best bench in the league (that’s dead last if you thought that I was exaggerating when I said worst).

Our Euro friends Rudy Fernandez Victor Claver and Joel Pryzbilla Freeland don’t appear lost in America so much as overwhelmed, and there is a difference. They move well enough, but their arms and hands don’t seem to do the things they did in the ACB League as they do in the NBA. The motions are proper but fail to have the same effect. Claver’s shooting a blazing 5-22 from the floor and 2-7 from deep and Freeland has not been the second coming of Joel Pryzbilla who averaged 6.2 rebounds and 3.9 points over all his seasons in the league. I’m going to let you in on a secret, Freeland isn’t close to the Vanilla Gorilla’s career averages. These guys are new to the league, but not to basketball, and unfortunately it shows. The Spanish league may have all the A’s, B’s, and C’s, but they could use some more time in the D’s, or NBA Development League for those not into weird slang no one uses.

The native shrubs and trees, a cute term for our non-foreign point guards and centers I just made up, have given us a whopping 11.4 points per game and 3.0 turn overs per game. I understand why Ronnie Price is here, friends with Damian Lillard, but unfortunately for Nolan Smith I imagine it is only a matter of time till he is not here. Jeffries is cool. Meyers Leonard has proven himself to be a fun lil’ guy with a very obvious upside but right now has been providing more amazing RAGE faces than real defense.

From beyond the arc, our 3-point snipers could use some more practice at the shooting range as Pavlovic and Babbitt are putting up .297 and .350 from behind the line that’s furthest away from the basket. I thought Luke’s attempts at going inside had been faring poorly, but he’s shooting better than from deep, .373. As much as I love him trying to improve his non-chalupa game, it looks like a mangle, burnt quesadilla I cooked in a pan without butter once (Tasted terrible and I couldn’t pick it up with my hands because it would disentigrate). At this point, I’d like to see if we could get away with switching Ben Golliver with Sasha Pavlovic, mainly because Ben’s legs are cramping in media row. It really couldn’t hurt to try right. I think Ben could bring a good presence and really body up guys.

I’m not going talk about Will Barton because he has not played in the last three games and I have a terrible memory. I will also avoid disparaging Elliot Williams because the pain of multiple season ending injuries is pain enough for three men. I hope this helps you catch up with the 30th ranked bench in the NBA. It’s obviously a work in progress; however, I have faith, a deep-rooted irrational faith but faith nonetheless. Terry Stotts is an offensive wizard (I heard he lives in a tower deep in the Hills of Boro), and has cast a spell of increase abilities on Nicolas Batum. So let’s all believe together and pray a few basketball rosaries for our Blazers bench.

I Was Wrong About J.J. Hickson, Part II: Symbiosis

Yesterday, I wrote about how J.J. Hickson has remodeled his game and is operating at a career-best efficiency as a result. Considering the rather lackluster effort the Blazers showed for much of the night in their loss to Cleveland, my timing…perhaps left something to be desired, but I promised to expand on my argument that Hickson has turned into something of a franchise barometer for Portland, so expand I shall.

In a way, last night’s game is demonstrative of what J.J. means to the Trail Blazers. Somehow amidst the low-energy wreckage of last night’s game, he emerged with a double-double. That seems great, as does his posterization of Alonzo Gee. Less perceptible from the box score or highlights, however, were the balls fumbled out of bounds, the passes sailed into the stands because Hickson pulled up on his cuts, and the wide-open looks Tristan Thompson got at the rim. It was a reminder that, even when producing more and more efficiently, Hickson is no centerpiece for a winning team.

So how much good from Hickson is a good thing? I’ve been quietly swimming against the pro-tanking stream this season, and I’m increasingly of the belief that the organizational relief that comes from grinding out wins far outweighs the benefits of marginally increasing the team’s draft chances. It’s hard not to be charmed on the non-rational level by a team running its starters 38 minutes a game to likely fall short of the playoffs; there’s a certain purity and commitment to the obstinacy that, frankly, I much prefer to the cynical and luck-baiting “blow it up” approach to teambuilding.

So in that sense, freeing Hickson up to do as much damage as he’s able is a commendable flexibility and offensive ingenuity, two qualities it’s safe to say are emerging as Stotts hallmarks. This roster necessitates that a coach not get too hung up on its limitations—the Blazers are basically running out a max of three players who don’t have some major gap in their games. So Stotts, to his credit, has this team focus on what they can do; in Hickson’s case, what he can do is work as a roll man operating with more space than he’s accustomed to because of LaMarcus Aldridge’s presence.

But what’s the end goal? Before I had considered that Hickson’s Bird Rights and trade veto muddied the waters for the team potentially moving him, I figured the Blazers were trying to ship him to a contender for a late first round pick. Now that that’s less likely, harnessing Hickson’s oft-spastic play seems less directly beneficial to the franchise, and brings up the question of when one night’s win makes tomorrow’s less likely.

The Blazers, in all probability, are not staying in the playoff chase. They have never been as good as their record, and the past four losses have seen probability catching up to them. And yet, as they keep scrapping their way into close games with their limited roster, the possibility that they are gearing up for a stab at the postseason becomes ever greater. At the center of this is Hickson. If they’re going to keep him, and keep reaping the benefits of his double-double streaks, they’re a flawed team with a puncher’s chance in any game. If they win enough to just fall short of the postseason, they will risk losing their first-round pick, top-12 protected property of the Bobcats from the Gerald Wallace trade. If they defy the odds and make the playoffs, they’ll part with their pick and hope the growth value of getting waxed by a higher seed exceeds a middling pick in a weak draft.

None of this is an argument against playing Hickson, or for trading him, or anything like that. But the Blazers are a team with serious deficiencies, finding a way to cobble together improbable wins. Hickson is a player with serious deficiencies, finding a way to produce just enough to offset the holes in his game. As the two lean on each other—Hickson to stay relevant in the NBA, the Trail Blazers to stay among the ranks of the winning—they make you wonder how much wins are worth.   

Blazers 88, Cavaliers 93: A lesson in fatigue and denial

The Blazers made it 4 straight losses tonight and 8 straight close games, dropping an ugly one to Cleveland that saw a couple forces working against the home team. The first of these, naturally, is regression to the mean; the Blazers’ well-chronicled success in close games and overtime was almost certainly never so much about the team as it was their luck. The second factor at work tonight, and the one dominating conversations here at the Rose Garden post-game, is fatigue.

The Blazers came out looking weary and uninterested in the first half. If not for the hot long-distance shooting of Nic Batum in the first quarter, the 53-36 halftime deficit would have likely been even more of an eyesore. The Blazers made their way back into the game with a little more second-half energy and a major fourth quarter offensive slump from Cleveland that saw the visitors post three points in the first six minutes of the final frame.  Cleveland got little production outside of strong efforts from Tristan Thompson and Kyrie Irving, but in the end, the Blazers were unable to overcome what certainly looked like dead legs.

Perhaps the most damning evidence of serious fatigue was the performance of Damian Lillard, who carried an 0-4 line into the fourth quarter before finally connecting on 3 of 5 shots in that period. After the game, however, Terry Stotts and his players had different things to say about the potential of long minutes wearing the Blazers down.

When asked whether he could think of a reason the Blazers started flat, Stotts responded with a simple, curt “No.” Wes Matthews fell in line, trotting out a game “there’s no excuses” but unable to stop himself from conceding that Cleveland “looked like a fresher team.” Nic Batum, who is generally unhampered by machismo when discussing the realities of the NBA game, conceded that the Blazers were tired, but insisted that tiredness was not what kept them from winning.

I suspect over the next few days, Blazers fans will see various takes on this. Yes, the players and coaches had differing answers when asked about fatigue, but what this really boils down to is an exercise in ferreting out the most honest players. Terry Stotts is a smart coach, and goes to great lengths taking pressure off his players with the media; I’m positive that when he takes an imaginative look at the film from this game, it will occur to him that his starters played as if they’d logged 120 minutes each in the past week.

Season-long readers will know that I’m a bit obsessed with the taxing nature of the NBA schedule. For a first-time close observer, the toll the schedule takes on players’ bodies and minds defies the platitudes fans grow up hearing. The back-and-forth quotes that players and coaches will give on the issue of fatigue is not a symptom of them being out of sync with one another, it’s a symptom of an impossibly intense seven-month degradation of mental and physical resources.

Ask yourself what you would expect players and a coach to say when queried about being tired. If you’re like me, you would assume that about 60%, or a little more than half, of the people you asked would give a standard “no excuses” line. You’d expect the rest to concede that fatigue is a reality but not an insurmountable obstacle. Because the players understand they’re playing two games—the one on the court, and the one where they’re filling their roles as entertainers by dancing around the warrior archetype.

Of course the Blazers are tired. That’s not a swipe—I’m not accusing them of being the sort who tire easily, and I don’t truly believe that they’re too tired to win basketball games. Except on rare occasion, the Blazers are likely to be no more tired than their opponent. My point is that exhaustion is a truth in the NBA, a truth that has to be learned, and I’m sure that it’s difficult for a team with a new head coach and four rookies to learn it. Sure, there’s value in it, value in learning how to lean on one another, how to take care of your body, how to tweak your mechanics to account for tired muscles. But I doubt very much there’s any value in denying it. 

Preview: Blazers versus Cavaliers

Damian Lillard and the Blazers look to face off against Kyrie Irving and the Cavaliers in a battle that pits last year’s ROY against this year’s presumptive favorite. The Blazers have dropped three in a row and suffered a tough loss at Denver in overtime last night; Cleveland is coming off their own three game losing streak and is coming in refreshed after three days off. All of this points to Dion Waiters, #3, or Sasha Pavlovic, also #3, having a huge game if my numerology training has taught me anything.

The Blazers’ effort will break one of two ways: either they’ll play like they’re on the second night of a back-to-back and just went to overtime in the Mile High City, or they’ll grit their teeth and find the high gears tonight anyway. Either way, I doubt this game will be a thing of beauty sung about for years to come. The Blazers’ starters will need help from the bench tonight; the Cavs bench won’t be a big threat—they rank 28th to Portland’s 30th in scoring—but could end up putting them over the top against a weary Blazers team.

Game Stories:

The sequel to John Woo’s 1997 thriller Face/Off takes place tonight “Face/Off 2: Faced!” starring Damian Lillard and Kyrie Irving. Hopefully, we all get the dazzling display of two young point guards we paid for.

J.J. Hickson may have something to prove against his former team, and with Anderson Varejao out, Hickson could eat them up on put backs. Or he could get punked by Tyler Zeller.

LaMarcus will try to bang up slightly smaller Tristan Thompson to get a casual 20 and 10.

Starters:

Cleveland: Kyrie Irving (PG), C.J. Miles (SG), Alonzo McGee (SF), Tristan Thompson (PF), Tyler Zeller (C)

Portland: Damian Lillard (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), J.J. Hickson (C)

Possible Headlines:

Kyrie Irving/Damian Lillard win Face/Off 2 roles

Dan Gilbert writes J.J. Hickson a mean letter about loyalty, Hickson is baffled

Cavs take advantage of tired Blazers, rightfully earn title of 28th best bench

I Was Wrong About J.J. Hickson, Part I

Another game, another big line for J.J. Hickson. The Blazers—making a serious habit of testing their crunch time luck this season—may have come up short in overtime last night in Denver, but it was not for want of another strong showing from their starting “center”. In 34 minutes, J.J. logged 19 points and 13 rebounds on 7/8 field goals. Outrun for much of the night by the fleet-footed Kenneth Faried, Hickson nonetheless managed the sort of line that may have shocked at the beginning of this year but has become increasingly commonplace.

I have to admit that I—like many others, I suspect—had more or less written Hickson off before this season. Yes, he had a brief performance bump last year in the 19 games he played for the Blazers, but I was comfortable attributing that to a brief jolt brought on by his release from Sacramento and the bizarre state of flux the Blazers’ roster was in when he arrived. And yet, by most measures, he’s been even better this year.

Lately, his improved play has landed him in the news cycle. An ESPN article by Justin Kubatko (Insider) detailed Hickson’s chances of being named the league’s Most Improved Player, while Blazers observers have been trying to parse out whether his play has made him a viable trade asset. Though, as Marc Stein pointed out, Hickson’s Bird Rights and trade veto clause complicate any potential moves, it’s clear that he has  played his way back into value, either as part of a surprising fringe playoff team or a deal that helps Portland stockpile more assets.

How did this happen? How did a player who seemed so cooked become a valuable and reliable starter? 

Let me start by saying that, in discussing Hickson’s increased value, I am not glossing his weaknesses. The Blazers rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every meaningful defensive stat, and remain the only team among the West’s top 8 with a negative point margin. While there are other factors on the roster, a large reason the Blazers are so flammable is the heavy minutes they’re playing Hickson alongside LaMarcus Aldridge. Hickson is strong and a willing banger, but his sluggish feet, relative lack of size for a “center” and proclivity toward blowing rotations make him a defensive liability. 

Looked at a certain way, however, those deficiencies make what Hickson is doing all the more impressive. The Blazers’ starters are playing heavy minutes—Hickson, in fact, is the only one averaging less than 35—and the work J.J. is doing provides a bit of triage to keep the unit’s strengths competitive in the face of its weaknesses.  In fact, Hickson is posting the highest individual offensive rating among regular Blazer players, so he’s augmenting the team strengths even more than it initially appears.

So, again I ask: How? One of the things fans are saying about Hickson is that he has finally come to terms with his inner dog, that his release from Sacramento made him understand that he needs to rely on the game’s dirty work to keep a rotation spot. Though I’m hesitant to ascribe that sort of motivation, the numbers do bear out that Hickson is currently subsisting more on yeoman’s buckets than he has before.

So far this year, Hickson is posting a .580 true shooting percentage, his best figure since playing 20 minutes and taking 6 shots a game his second year. Playing heavier minutes, Hickson’s shooting declined in each of the next two seasons, bottoming out last year at a dismal TS% of .416 during his partial season in Sacramento.

Much of that decline can be attributed to Hickson’s shot selection. In 2010-2011, Hickson took just 45% of his shots at the rim. In 2011-2012, that figure fell to 43%. So despite his strong conversion rate around the bucket—he actually shot a higher percentage at the rim last year than he has so far this year—his overall shooting was much worse. In 2010-11, in fact, he was a dismal .325 from 10-15 feet and .316 from 16-23. Pretty putrid, especially for the portion of his attempts those shots represented.

This year, J.J. is taking about 62% of his shots directly near the rim. That’s all well and good, but that change has improved his other shooting zones as well: so far, he’s hitting at .487 from 10-15 feet and a gaudy .600 from 16-23 feet in a limited number of attempts. He hasn’t improved much as a shooter, but he has become much more discerning. It seems that only the best looks can prompt him to let it fly from the mid-range, and that’s turned him into an extremely efficient offensive player.

While his shooting has improved, Hickson’s rebounding has skyrocketed. His 21.6 total rebound percentage blows away his previous career high, and he’s racked up a couple lengthy double-double streaks. He has perfected a sly push-off that he uses to wreak havoc on the boards (seriously, once you see it, you can’t unsee it), and he’s often the only Blazer really contesting the glass. That he grabs as high a percentage of misses as he does is almost found money for Portland, and allows them to keep a wide-open floor like Terry Stotts prefers.

I’m not writing this to give Hickson the overblown fanboy treatment. He’s a flawed player, slow-footed and prone to lapses in defensive rotations and off-ball movement on offense. Some of his production is undeniably the product of huge team-wide flaws. But because he is such a flawed player finding success, he provides a good deal of insight into the new Blazers era. On the court, he is a testament to the ingenuity that has propelled this surprising season, and the decisions the Blazers make about his future role with the team will be a major indicator of their intentions going forward. Tomorrow, I’ll elaborate a bit more on how this is so. 

Did you guys know Lillard is from Oakland?

Damian Lillard will step onto the Oracle Arena court, fresh off a win against the defending champs and taking home his second consecutive Western Conference Rookie of the Month. In his first trip to Oakland, Lillard is looking to lead the Blazers to their seventh win in the last eight games.

While the Blazers are feeling great about their effort last night and hoping to give Lillard a proper introduction to his hometown, the smell of a trap game is strong in Portland even from 637 miles north.

Golden State has lost their last two games matching their longest losing streak of the season. They will undoubtedly look to bounce back against Portland tonight. Sources report Mark Jackson writing, “Not on my watch!” on the team’s chalkboard.

Starters:

Portland: Damian Lillard (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), J.J. Hickson (C)

Golden State: Stephen Curry (PG), Klay Thompson (SG), Harrison Barnes (SF), David Lee (PF), Festus Ezeil (C)

Stats:

Before winning the last three contests, Portland had dropped four in a row to the Warriors. Tonight they look to bring the record back to .500 over the past eight games.

Golden State is currently sitting in fifth in the Western Conference and is two and a half games up on Portland in the standings.

The Warriors feature two of the top-three three-point shooters in the league: Curry and Klay Thompson. The Blazers allow opponents just 33.8% from the three-point line (good for eighth in the league), but Golden State averages 39.1% from outside (fourth-best).

Last season Charles Jenkins torched Portland for his career-high 27 points. He is out with an injury tonight.

Potential Headlines, courtesy of Maddison:

“Lillard gets hyphy, ghost rides the whip to victory”

“David Lee and Stephen Curry do the thizzle dance all over Portland”

Potential Absolutely Certain Headlines:

“Lillard [blahblahblahs] in his first trip to Oakland”

Bonus:

I used to post this whenever Jackson called a game for Portland, but this is as close as we’re getting and it would be a crime not to share it again:

Mark Jackson Bingo.