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Because the world really needed another blog dedicated to the Portland Trail Blazers. We're a group of journalists and fans who've grown up with--or have grown to love--Oregon's only professional franchise (and this won't change when MLS comes to town). Plus we're convinced that--if given the chance--we could totally hit the Toyota halfcourt shot. Until then, we're stuck here in the Portland Roundball Society.
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Thursday
Mar142013

Preview: Knicks @ Blazers

The New York Knicks visit Portland tonight only hours removed from the double digit loss to the Denver Nuggets in which Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler were lost to injuries. Amare Stoudemire is unlikely to play tonight as well after sitting last night in Denver. New York will have to turn to J.R. Smith and Raymond Felton, who returns to the Rose Garden for the first time since wearing a Blazer uniform, to carry the scoring load.

Raymond Felton, who often appeared out of shape last year, received much of the blame for the failures of the Trail Blazers last season. It’s common for a player to downplay their return to a former team, but it’s safe to assume Felton will bring a little extra motivation to the game tonight.

Portland has lost two games in a row and is on the second game of a three game home stand. The Blazers will look to take advantage of the shorthanded Knicks tonight. In a 105-100 victory in New York on New Year’s Day the Blazers relied on their starters to carry the load. LaMarcus Aldridge, who scored 19 points and gathered 14 rebounds in the last meeting, will look to exploit the lack of interior defense tonight.

As the Trail Blazers fall farther out of contention for the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how Terry Stott’s rotation is affected. Expect more minutes for Meyers Leonard and Will Barton as front office looks to the future and contemplates how to use the team’s cap space this offseason.

Wednesday
Mar132013

Mixed Results in the Crunch

Simply put, Terry Stotts designs a beautiful offence.

The Trail Blazers head coach is known around the league as an innovative offensive mind who finds creative ways to put his players in situations that favor them. Stotts also, to a degree, allows his players the freedom to operate within the offence and empowers them to make decisions and find the right shots.

When you think of a Terry Stotts’ offence, you think of movement, subtlety and misdirection. However, the play we are going to look at today is almost the complete opposite; it’s a brute force attack on one specific area of the court, and the Blazers have gone to it again and again in late game situations. 

Here’s the play in real time from last night’s game: 

Stotts has called this sideline out of bounds play on numerous occasions, most memorably in last month’s loss to the Lakers (Nic Batum stepped on the line and it was ruled a two), in last week’s loss to the Grizzlies (Tony Allen blocked Nic Batum’s three point attempt, and then did some sort of interpretive dance), and as the last play Sunday’s loss to New Orleans:

The first option is clear enough, to get Batum or Matthews a decent look at a corner three, and it’s a shot that Stotts evidently trusts either of those two to take, and the play is effective in terms of creating that specific shot.

Let’s take a closer look at the play, and also at a secondary option. 

The eventual shooter, Nic Batum in this case, starts out high and will sprint off two staggered flare screens to the short corner. Damian Lilliard sets the first screen, which will become important when we look at the second option. 

If you watch the way Memphis defends this, it looks as if they know what’s coming. As Batum sets up, watch how Tayshaun Prince angles himself to avoid both screens, and basically puts himself in a foot race to the corner with Batum. At the same time Tony Allen is guarding the inbounder and is set up to make the pass to the corner as difficult as possible. 

Contrast this with the way New Orleans defends the play: guarding the inbounder tight; chasing the shooter through both screens; and eventually forcing Anthony Davis switch out onto Wes to defend the shot. Now even though both of the shots missed, you can see the difference that preparation and scouting can make, and perhaps gain some insight into why Memphis and New Orleans are at different ends of the spectrum when it comes to the strength of their defence.

As alluded to earlier, the second option of this play is for Damian Lillard, who is responsible for setting the initial screen.

Lilliard has two screen options, and on this play it looks like either could have resulted in a better look than Nic got in the corner.

 

Full credit to the Memphis Grizzlies, they defended the play extremely well. It will be interesting to see how the Blazers adjust to this kind of defensive coverage going forward. 

Wednesday
Mar132013

Post-game Journal: Inverted Karenina

Nineteen games left in my first season covering an NBA team, I wonder if there is something of an inverse Anna Karenina principle at work in the league: All losing teams are alike; each winning team is successful in its own unique way.

When an NBA team is winning, it feels like alchemy. Players are falling back on old clichés in their responses, but the dead and dusty phrases feel imbued with a talismanic sort of quality. Here a koan about discipline and taking things one day at a time feels like a sort of insistence upon emotional balance; there a player shaking off the occasional loss feels like the purgation of doubt from the clean locker room. But when a team starts losing, clichés and bromides start to pile up in every corner, crowding in front of lockers and making it difficult to slither through the media swarm waiting on changing players.

After tonight’s loss to Memphis, I was in search of some glimmer of meaning as the team’s season starts to slip away. This Blazers team has been marked by a charming kind of stubbornness, a way of pursuing unconvincing or improbable wins with a patchwork roster as cynics or detractors or wise observers insisted that what they were doing was foolish or impossible. As that cynicism or wisdom begins to prove itself prescient, I was hoping to find some nugget that showed the Blazers grappling with an erosion of their sense of self, some frustration or desperation or perhaps a surprising dedication to principle. But I found the same things you find when a team is winning.

Terry Stotts started his post-game a little softer voiced than usual, a little redder in the eye. He was purposely obtuse a few times: a reporter asked what had happened to Nic Batum’s scoring, and Stotts said “I believe it’s down;” another reporter asked what effect that had on the team, Stotts said “we score less.” But this is garden-variety media cat-and-mouse, a losing coach deciding not to bite on a regular beat reporter question one night. This is a coach’s prerogative, and I think most indulge it every so often.

In the locker room, things were much the same. A little terse, sure, but a recognizable vibe. It’s silly to expect more. Before the season, I had a kind of private fantasy that I might decode the player interaction the way, say, an interviewer for The Paris Review draws an author out on his philosophy of perspective. Just the right question, and LaMarcus Aldridge might say “You’re exactly right to point that out, and as I age I have become less convinced of the whole notion of direct post-ups!” I’ve long since realized how stupid the idea is, but it’s hard not to try and dig deeper than the media scrum superficiality when the season seems at a natural inflection point.

It was in that spirit I approached Will Barton while reporters crowded around Damian Lillard’s locker. Will is one of the more effusive presences in the locker room, one of the most likely to engage journalists beyond the standard obligations. I asked him how, in his first season, he dealt with the idea of falling out of a playoff race. He gave me a blank kind of look. I clarified—you know, how do you keep urgency from settling into panic, or harness your intensity? I believe he said, quite literally, to take it one game at a time. It was an embarrassed sort of interaction; he looked past me, in a way that’s not typical for him, and I floundered to prod him into some of his usual easy familiarity. Nothing doing.

As is often the case, an indirect interaction with Damian Lillard was the most clarifying of the night. In the media scrum, he fended off a few invitations to sound an alarm about the standings. A reporter asked him whether the Blazers could learn from the Grizzlies, and he said an interesting thing: “I wouldn’t say learn from them, no.”

This is exactly right. The code of locker room communication is about refusing to admit that your methods are incorrect, that you have something to learn. You might incorporate certain lessons and use them as generic billboard material, but your approach is never wrong. You don’t learn from an opponent, because they don’t know anything you don’t. They just won.

And that’s why the idea of finding players reflecting on a season slipping away is almost a paradox. Because the difference between winning and losing is just the difference between winning and losing. The platitudes at hand don’t change, the mixed façade of humility and total confidence never wavers. There are always little things we can get better at, we’re never happy, whatever happens we’re a proud team, we’re just focused on the Knicks right now.

This whole thing, I realize, serves to make winning all the more miraculous. For a stretch, the whole game is validated; mundane discipline really does feel paramount, and it really does become crucial not to overextend one’s emotional energies worrying about the later parts of the schedule. The spectrum of acceptable communication in the NBA seems to preclude the possibility of organic excitement taking root, but somehow it does. Somehow all the same bare tropes that imprison a losing team are bolstering a winning one.

This is why I’m beginning to suspect that all losing teams are alike and all winning teams are unique. Losing teams, through whatever degree of dysfunction or simple mediocrity, are leaning on the same dull faith, and the message is the same in most any losing locker room, barring a major off-court catastrophe. But when lightning strikes and winning takes root, successful teams find ways to sustain the mirage, to keep the fire lit, and make their identity in how they hold fast. 

Tuesday
Mar122013

Memphis 102-Portland 97: BLAZERS FALL IN DEFENSIVE STRUGGLE

Memphis Grizzlies 102 Final
Recap | Box Score
97 Portland Trail Blazers
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF 40 MIN | 10-19 FG | 8-8 FT | 10 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 4 TO | 28 PTS | +8

Lots of energy, but seemed too wrapped-up in personal battle with Zach Randolph at times.

Nicolas Batum, SF 41 MIN | 0-5 FG | 4-4 FT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 2 BLK | 3 TO | 4 PTS | +6

Seems lost at this point; wrist is clearly hampering what Batum can do. Seemed tentative to shoot, and made questionable decision all night.

J.J. Hickson, C 26 MIN | 3-10 FG | 2-2 FT | 9 REB | 0 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 8 PTS | -16

Good energy as usual, but seemed off from the start. Got off to a nice start, recording six quick points, but faded off after that.

Damian Lillard, PG 39 MIN | 8-17 FG | 8-8 FT | 1 REB | 7 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 27 PTS | -4

Despite struggling mightily during the second and third quarter, Lillard proved why is the clear leader for Rookie Of The Year. He battled through tenacious defense by Mike Conley to provide a steady source of points and keep Portland close late.

Wesley Matthews, SG 34 MIN | 3-10 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 8 PTS | -13

It’s actually painful to watch Matthews at this point. His injuries are too numerous to name, and when his three-point shot is not falling, the rest of his game is simply too limited, whether due to the pain or otherwise.

Joel Freeland, PF 6 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 2 PTS | -5

Showed good energy in the first half; didn’t look as lost as he has in the past.

Meyers Leonard, C 17 MIN | 3-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 7 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 6 PTS | -2

Nice return from his ankle injury; showed a nice mid-range game, and despite missing a couple jumpers, I like the willingness to take the shot. Was outclassed by Marc Gasol, but held up better than the previous meeting.

Eric Maynor, PG 26 MIN | 3-8 FG | 5-5 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 11 PTS | +7

Continues to impress, added veteran savvy. Helped keep the game close, when it appeared things were getting out of hand.

Will Barton, SG 11 MIN | 1-3 FG | 1-2 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 3 PTS | -6

Lots of energy, but still WAY too interested in his own shot at this point. If he can learn to harness, could be a valuable asset off the bench.

Five Things We Saw

  1. When Damian Lillard is pressured at the top of the key, Portland’s offense really struggles. Mike Rice put it well during the broadcast, when he said it’s a “cut off the head, watch the body die.” While Lillard still got his points, the offense was out of rhythm for the majority of the night.
  2. It may well be time for Batum and Matthews to shut it down for a while. At this point in the season, every player is dinged up, but these two in particular seem to be shells of themselves. Batum, seems to have lost any and all confidence with his wrist issues. Matthews, who has a myriad of injuries, is agonizing to watch at this point.
  3. For all intents and purposes, the season looks to be headed towards to the lottery, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. Guys like Joel Freeland (who had a decent run in the first half) and Meyers Leonard need reps, and their should be plenty of opportunities. Leonard had a nice game offensively, but again struggled on defensive rotations. Match-ups with guys of Marc Gasol’s caliber are fantastic learning opportunities for the young guy, but a bit tough on fans.
  4. Memphis GM Chris Wallace should be considered for GM of the year. At the time, trading Rudy Gay seemed to some like the the Grizzlies were throwing in the towel. However, this team is rolling, and they seem to have shredded any last bit of selfishness that may have plagued them with Gay in the lineup. Now sitting at 43-19, having won 13 of their last 14, the Grizzlies look to be a major contender in the western conference come playoff time.
  5. Despite the loss, you have to like the lineup of Maynor and Lillard on the floor. It will take some time to really jell, but what Maynor brings to the table cannot be under-estimated. Throw in the budding savvy of Victor Claver when he returns, and there is definitely potenital with the mixing of the first and second units.
Tuesday
Mar122013

PREVIEW: BLAZERS VS. GRIZZLIES

Portland welcomes the Memphis Grizzlies to the Rose Garden tonight, looking to avenge a heart-breaking, late-game collapse in last week’s loss in Memphis. The Grizzlies, riding a four-game win streak, bring the NBA’s number-one scoring defense into tonight’s matchup, giving up just 89 points per game on the season.

Memphis is having the best season in franchise history to this point at 42-19, and have won 12 of their last 13 games. They have done this despite missing All-star (and, of course, former Blazer) Zach Randolph for large chunks of the season. Mid-season acquisition Tayshaun Prince has played a big role in keeping the Grizzlies rolling in Randolph’s absence, and another former Blazer, Jerryd Bayless, has finally found a home, being a spark coming off the Memphis bench.

Portland, home from a 1-2 road trip, sits 2 games back in the loss column from the Lakers, who currently hold the final playoff spot. The Blazers will face the toughest strength of schedule in the NBA the rest of the season, although they have found most of their success this season facing tougher opponents. Tonight is game one of a three-game homestand, and Portland needs to make good on the opportunity for a few wins if they’re to have any chance at all of staying in the playoff race.

While Memphis welcomes back Randolph, Portland will also see some reinforcement in the middle, as center Meyers Leonard is expected to return to the lineup after missing Sunday’s game against New Orleans with a rolled ankle. Leonard, who was in the midst of the best stretch of basketball he has played in a Blazers uniform, will look to keep his momentum against the Memphis defense that so blanketed the Blazers last matchup. With Randolph back in the lineup, Memphis will look to dominate the interior even more than they did last Wednesday.

Tuesday
Mar122013

Breaking Down the Breakdowns

The peak-and-valley weekend of the Portland Trail Blazers is indicative of the current state of the team. The Blazers have enough potential to not only beat one of the premier teams in the league like the Spurs, but to really pile it on in the process. Unfortunately, this goes hand in hand with their ability to drop a game to the 22-42 Hornets on a Ryan Anderson and-1. 

The constant this weekend (and throughout the season, for that matter) was a sub-par defense. The Blazers rank 25th in defensive efficiency, giving up 105.6 points per 100 possessions. Even in the 30-point crushing of the Spurs, they had a defensive rating of 110.9. Post that number while Wes Matthews is lighting up the corners and Damian Lillard is showing off his Rookie of the Year credentials and you’re a hero. Average that over a season, however, and they call you the Bobcats.
 
While Coach Stotts will use zone on certain possessions and out-of-bounds plays, the Blazers main defensive scheme is a strict man-to-man. The term “strict” applies in the sense that very little switching is ever planned and help during on-ball screens is quick, aggressive, and then abandoned. This, however, tends to leave the on-ball defender vulnerable if he does not take the right path through the screen and can be even more troubling off the ball where very little hedging happens and defenders can get lost in multiple screens while a big sags back off his man.
 
Take this play from the Spurs game on Friday night. Below, Kawhi Leonard has caught the ball for what ends up being an isolation.
Notice how three Portland defenders are across the lane and the closest, Lillard, is in the worst position for help. If Leonard were to drive left and beat Batum, it is unlikely that any Blazer would be able to contest in time without committing a foul. Leonard pulled up and hit a jumper, though an argument could be made of that shot being the best outcome.
 
Breakdowns on pick-and-rolls were more evident against New Orleans on Sunday. Here, Greivis Vasquez is running the second pick-and-roll action of the possession.
The position J.J. Hickson holds in the photo is the farthest point out he came to hedge, which proves a problem. As Matthews follows his defender, committed to getting over the screen and staying with his original man,he runs into Hickson.
You don’t need me to tell you that this is a problem. Vasquez would get into the lane and pull up uncontested as both Batum and Lillard looked on.
Better rotations and help defense could have potentially caused the ball to be kicked out and reversed back in Anthony Davis’ direction.
 
Another troubling aspect of Portland’s defense is how many opponent shots come at the basket. Portland has ceded the third most shots in the restricted area to its opponents this seasons. The Blazers have held them to a slightly below average shooting mark from that area, but this is still a 60 percent shot that opponents are getting more than a third of the time. We can also break this down individually. Nicolas Batum and Damian Lillard have given up the third and fourth most shots in the league in the restricted area to their opponents, respectively. For perspective, first and second on that list are Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis of the esteemed Bucks backcourt.
 
Sifting through this information and drawing conclusions can be difficult. Can we attribute all the blame for these shots solely to Batum and Lillard? Maybe not. As the screencaps show, and as most season-long observers have witnessed first-hand, the Blazers defense can bleed at the back line when Hickson plays. Though he has relatively quick feet, he’s not much of a shot blocker and his hedging and rotating abilities are severely lacking. In a defensive system which places a premium on a strong hedge and recovery, Hickson’s efforts amount to laying down a red carpet to the semi-circle.
 
There are certain bright spots to how the Blazers have defended thus far, mainly in their ability to limit other high-value shots. They have kept their opponents from launching corner threes, giving up the fourth fewest attempts in the league. They also are contesting the ones they do concede, holding opponents to 35.7 percent, well below the median of 39 percent. Add in that they’ve kept their opponents off the line (0.25 opponent Free Throw Rate, 0.27 is average) and the Blazers appear to have a solid grasp of efficient defensive strategy. Hopefully going forward they can execute more effectively in pushing opponents away from the rim and improve their defensive ranking in the process. 

All stats courtesy NBA.com
Sunday
Mar102013

Hornets 98-Blazers 96: A Familiar Feeling

One game removed from perhaps their most impressive showing of the season, the Blazers reverted to form in New Orleans, spending most of the game out of sync before tightening things up through crunch time and pinning their hopes on an improbable shot. If there is a story to this game, it will be that the Blazers proved themselves unable to put their peripatetic ways behind them as the schedule fades into March meaninglessness.

Or perhaps, not total meaninglessness. When the Blazers are winning, the idea of dropping games in pursuit of their top 12-protected pick is a tough sell; in fact, given that the Blazers owe their pick to the Bobcats next year even if they keep it this year, I’ve been pretty vocal in my lack of support for tanking. That said, the prospect of putting the rest of the season to use in pursuit of an asset is growing more appealing to me when considered against the alternative of literally inconsequential games. There’s some small irony in this, since most tanking detractors say that tanking makes the NBA season less meaningful, but if the Blazers play .500 ball the rest of the way, their games actually carry a little less weight than they would with a few more losses. As I’m warming up to the idea, it gets sort of fun to think about.

As far as tonight’s action, Blazers fans have watched this game before. The team came out and quickly built a small lead as the Hornets started 1-9 from the floor, but fell behind as soon as New Orleans started finding the bucket. In fact, the Blazers’ lead before Ryan Anderson’s go-ahead lay-up at 96-95 was their first since 25-24 in the first quarter. For most of the game, Portland looked disjointed while they maintained enough contact that Wesley Matthews’ hot shooting gave them some hope in the fourth.

And hot he was. Playing on an ailing [insert orthopedic anatomy here] as always, Matthews finished 6-11 from beyond the arc and buoyed an otherwise lackluster offense. The fluidity on display from the Maynor-Lillard lineups against San Antonio was largely absent, and in his 20 minutes Maynor had a relatively quiet 7 points and 4 assists against 3 turnovers. Lillard was a more-productive 9-16 for 20 points and 8 assists with 4 turnovers, but the majority of Portland’s offensive success came late from Matthews.

As for the Hornets, this was a strong showing. Greivis Vasquez matched Lillard’s 20 on fewer shots, While Ryan Anderson and Anthony Davis both posted double-doubles. Davis had a sort of sneaky 18 and 10, but showed an ability to constantly put himself in a position to make plays. Between one spectacular chase-down block, a crucial save to get Ryan Anderson a clutch three, and a few impressive tip-ins, Davis showed that he’s already savvy about putting himself in place to take advantage of his phenomenal athleticism.

On the whole, this will not be a game that Blazers fans look back on with any particular feeling, but with 20 games left, it was a check on fans’ hopes to see the Blazers build on their performance against the Spurs and continue their improbable season. But improbable is gradually giving way to the probable, and while he schedule keeps getting tougher as the season winds down, the Blazers might be wise to consider trading a shot at a miracle for less glamorous long-term strategy.  

Friday
Mar082013

Damian Lillard, Blazers Roll Spurs by 30

 

Watching the Trail Blazers dismantle the San Antonio Spurs like that was a site to behold. Yes, it’s in the realm of possibility that once it got ugly the Spurs mentally checked out. It’s also possible the Spurs were a bit absent to begin with, but what’s inarguable is the fact the Trail Blazers looked awesome. Let’s get into the key points of the night.

Damian Lillard was amazing to watch tonight, getting within two points of his career high. The rookie was effective the entire night, and efficient throughout— he went 12-20 from the field and hit all 8 of his free throw attempts. The sixth pick of the 2012 draft is now averaging 28 points per game against the Spurs, and Blazer fans will be reassured to see Lillard rise to the occasion when playing one the best teams in the West.

On a less positive note, both Meyers Leonard and Victor Claver sprained their ankles in the win. The Blazer bench has of course been painfully thin this season, and losing both Leonard and Claver will only worsen the current situation. Worse is the fact that both rookies had recently been giving the team a shot of energy. You always hate to see injuries, but especially to two young players who were showing signs of putting it together. 

Eric Maynor continues to make good on Portland’s decision to pick him up at the trade deadline. Maynor’s ACL injury clouded a solid history as a back-up point, but so far his recent play with the Blazers has been an unmitigated postive. Tonight was easily the high point of his short time in Portland, as he poured in a season high 20 points in on 8-11 shooting. The former VCU product also included 6 assists to steady the second unit. Maynor shores up Portland’s most glaring weakness and is possibly earning a longer tenure with the franchise.

Lastly, one of the main takeaways from this game is the emerging potency of lineups that feature Lillard alongside Maynor. Dame has been a strong scorer off the ball, which comes as a bit of a surprise given his history as a lead guard at Weber State. Granted, it’s only five games, but when Lillard and Maynor are on the floor together, the whole team has shot an impressive 51.5% from the field. Also, the Blazers are +21 in the 74 minutes the team has thrown those two out together in the last five games. We will see going forward if it is just a current trend or will continue to be successful going forward, but the two look as good together as they seem on paper.

In terms of this season, this game may not be monumental; Portland is still likely out of the playoffs, and the Spurs would still be the one seed if the season ended today. In the long term, you can look at a win like this in the current year as a building block for potential future success. Portland and Lillard looked incredible during some stretches tonight, and gave fans a glimpse of how they might compete against top-tier squads in the new era.