Blazers’ Plays of the Week

Welcome to Plays of the Week, where we take a look at Blazers’ sets from the past 7 days that caught our eye. If you see a play call or a trend that intrigues you, hit us up on twitter or leave a message in the comments section below.

The No Dribble Offense

While the majority of the Blazers offense is created through pick and roll action and post ups, some of the best looks that the team generates come when all five players are moving and screening for each other.

Here’s a play from early in the Rockets game that features a ton movement, multiple screens, and results in a number of good shooting options. 

The play really starts when Will Barton finds Wes Matthews coming off a JJ Hickson down screen. Barton immediately flares off a LaMarcus Aldridge screen as Hickson sets another down screen, this time for Damian Lillard (whose path is shown in grey). 

As Lillard hits the screen, Matthews has Aldridge open at the top of the key, and has a slightly less favorable pass to Will Barton, either at the rim or in the corner. Matthews opts to find Lillard and it results in a good look at a three. 

It’s a nice wrinkle on the standard horns set, and the Blazers managed to generate open looks with just ball and player movement.  

Welcome Back LaMarcus Aldridge

One of the reasons the first play that we looked at worked so well, is that the Blazers often use the same action to isolate Aldridge on the left block.

Instead of using an Aldridge screen, the strong side wing player (Victor Claver in this case) sets a back screen for Aldridge allowing him to establish decent post position.

We all know LaMarcus prefers to turn over his right shoulder to shoot when posted up on the left block, but Asik does a good job of overplaying that, so Aldridge drives to the middle and converts a tough shot while getting fouled. 

This clip shows the same action — with Wes Matthews setting the back screen this time — and Aldridge facing up Asik and driving baseline for fadeaway jumper. 

The final clip has elements of everything we’ve looked at so far – namely ball and player movement from the horns set – and ends in a favorable matchup with LA isolated against Dirk Nowitzki. 

Eric Maynor Lobs

As Eric Maynor gets comfortable with his teammates, these alley-oop plays – both in transition and in the half court – are becoming more common.

Maynor’s ball handling has obviously allowed Damian Lillard to play off the ball in the half court, but’s it’s also allowed him the opportunity to run the wings in transition. 

In the second clip, Maynor turns the corner after using a very high screen and finds a cutting Will Barton with a perfectly timed lob for an easy finish.  If the Blazers are unable to re-sign Maynor this summer, here’s hoping they are able to find someone that combines steady play with a flair for the dramatic. 

A Final Call to Arms

In one week, the Trail Blazers 2012-2013 campaign will be over – if it isn’t already. Portland fans once again will be free for the summer to scrutinize scouting reports on Draft Express, debate the long-term merits of J.J. Hickson, pore over the geography of basketball as presented by Kirk Goldsberry, hunt for Kelvin Cato replica jerseys on Ebay, reacquaint themselves with local used book stores, home brew kombucha, wander through farmers markets while wondering about the comparative quality of life of kale versus quinoa, or whatever else it is that we do when separated from our routine congregations at One Center Court. With the Blazers’ season finally having devolved into a bench-clearing stagger towards the draft lottery, fans would be forgiven for looking towards their summer plans. But please, Portland, I implore you, don’t start your journey into the online archives of Alan Lomax just yet. Tonight, those purple and gold land o’lakes castoffs invade our fair city with their barbarous media horde and cash-soaked idea of destiny. Tonight, the duty as fans goes beyond the fate of a dwindling season. With the purpose of the common good for the greater human family, Portland must summon all of its remaining reserve to make another valiant stand against the scourge of the Western Conference. 

Do not be fooled by the fact that these Los Angeles Lakers enter the contest holding a only half a game lead in the race for the final playoff spot, or that Steve Nash and Metta World Peace have been hobbled by injury, or that former Portland fan favorite Steve Blake likely will be handling the point guard duties in Nash’s absence, or that they have a player named Metta World Peace. Instead, remember that Nash left noted Portlandiaphile Channing Frye to rot in Phoenix with Goran Dragic before being sidelined indefinitely with a heart issue. Remember that Blake’s inability to navigate around a ball screen left Greg Oden isolated on the perimeter to pick up quick fouls and limit the fans’ potential enjoyment of an already limited career. Remember that Metta World Peace is not a Unitarian co-op off of Northeast Alberta Street but a classless goon who once beat up on innocent members of an already depressed Detroit community simply because one poor guy lost the grip on his beverage. The Lakers deserve no sympathy and no quarter, especially in Portland.

The relationship between the two teams is less of a rivalry and more that of a fiercely defiant territory refusing to surrender to an oppressive empire. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the Lakers sent the monstrous Shaquille O’Neal with his sheer brutality masquerading as a post game to bludgeon Sabonis, Brian Grant, and the rest of our noble frontcourt into submission. The Blazers responded with the invention of “Hack-a-Shaq” in an ill-fated attempt to stave off destruction. After the repressed memory of the 2000 Western Conference Finals, Kobe, Shaq, and Rick Fox’s campaign of total war set Portland down a path that nearly led to its complete basketball ruin. It required the ascension of Brandon Roy to resurrect the city from the very literal ghost of Darius Miles, the battle of red seats versus black seats, and reel off nine straight victories in Portland over the Lakers from 2005-2010. The Rose Garden haunted the Angelinos like the Russian winter haunted so many would-be conquerors. Even the great Zen Master himself resorted to Trevor Ariza’s cheap assassination attempt on the dashing Rudy Fernandez, almost starting a riot before Ariza’s ejection, while the Blazers ran out to a 111-94 victory. Before its end in 2010, the period of Rose City rebellion also saw Batum over Gasol: Parts I and II.

Now, both teams find themselves in relative mediocrity and therefore, the game tonight may lack the pretense of years past. The Lakers may be an injury-riddled chemistry experiment clinging to the bottom rung of the playoffs and the Blazers may start Meyers Leonard, Victor Claver, and Will Barton. But nonetheless, it always matters when the Lakers come to town. Kobe Bean Bryant will still be on the other side, and their treacherous bandwagon-jumping insurgency will be in full attendance. So please, Portlandians, don’t detach from this season yet. Make the Rose Garden the site of the final destruction of the 2012-2013 Los Angeles Lakers, for the Western Conference, for Sabonis, for Brandon Roy, for Channing Frye, and for Unitarian co-ops everywhere. May Will Barton have no mercy on their souls. Summer will come soon enough.

Beat L.A.

Baseless conjecture: Centers in free agency

Neil Olshey, J.J Hickson, and Hickson’s agent left very little to mystery in yesterday’s Jason Quick column, in which they all basically say that Hickson is done for in his present role with the Blazers. There is a litany of reasons why this is best—Hickson’s porous defense, his lack of real size for the role the Blazers need him to fill, his proclivity toward breezy misogyny, the fact that none of these problems will prevent him from getting overpaid—but that’s not what we’re here to discuss. My policy has been to wait until the offseason to discuss the offseason here on the blog, but since Olshey is doing it so publicly, let’s dive in on what this means for next season, shall we?

The Blazers need a center. Even supposing the heavens conspire to make Meyers Leonard a starter in his second year, the Blazers still need a center. And since it would pretty much take a conspiracy of the heavens to make him not just a starter but so reliable the team could plan around him, they need a center who can be a frequent starter.

As Quick points out, Portland will have 11.8 million dollars to spend. I’ll assume that a center is a higher priority than retaining Eric Maynor—though I have no direct evidence the team’s thinking that way, it seems a potential starter is a bigger and more expensive piece than a back-up point guard who is not ideally suited to a long stretches as a featured scorer. Still, the Blazers have likely holes at four spots in a nine man rotation, so a center can’t come too expensive. It seems a quandary.

Checking the list of free agents this summer, there are a few candidates here, assuming the Blazers pursue free agency rather than a trade. None are marquee players, and precisely zero are a perfect fit. Ideally, the Blazers pursue a youngish player who doesn’t need the ball much on offense to be content; the scoring punch the other four starters are packing is enough that Portland needs mostly to concern itself with a smart defensive rotator and capable rebounder. For this reason, I think the idea of throwing a lot of money at Nikola Pekovic, as has long been dreamed of by fans, is a bit misguided: he’s good, but the things that make him so good (read: expensive) may not be worth the price on a team that can lean on other scorers. I’m not saying that a low-post scorer would make the team worse, just that with limited resources, the team is better served paying for a less expensive player type.

I’m gonna talk specific players now, which, as always means we’re entering the realm of pure conjecture, wishin’, and foolishness. My money is on nothing in this post coming true, but it’s fun to think about certain players’ attributes as reflections on the team’s state. That said, a few names stick out here as potential affordable players who could fill a starter/third big role with some proficiency while primarily focusing on defense and rebounding.

Perhaps the biggest gamble among these is Brandan Wright. A below-average rebounder by rebound rate, Wright is nonetheless a 25 year old unearthing and identity as a back-line eraser and finisher par excellence; he may not bring the heft on the boards the Blazers are after, but the Dallas environment in which he’s starting to thrive is not a far cry from Stottsketball. It could be that Wright becomes more of a rebounder when asked to do more, or perhaps he’s enough of a help defender to mitigate that weakness. But I doubt he’s expensive, he’s young, he’s growing, and he went to Carolina, so basically I am starting a whitehouse.gov petition to get this started.

A player who is almost certainly a better fit, but for a few reasons maybe even less likely, is Tiago Splitter. A smart defender, a deft cutter in small movements around the hoop, and an average rebounder, Splitter could be a perfect fit next to LaMarcus Aldridge. Of course, nobody ever leaves the Spurs, and they’re in a position to hold on to what talent they have while they prop their window open through whatever means necessary. A team likely has to overpay to pry Splitter from the Spurs’ grasp, and overpaying is counterproductive for a team with as many needs as Portland.

Which brings me to an idea that sort of makes me hate myself. There is one free agent on the list with an above average rebound rate, playing more than 20 minutes a night, under thirty, with a defensive reputation. You know who I mean: Zaza. That’s right, the earth-bound Georgian and purveyor of perhaps the league’s least aesthetically pleasing game may just be the kind of ugly this otherwise over-pretty team could put to work. Currently, Pachulia makes $4.75m and probably hasn’t played his way to much more. He’s a yeoman with, to my knowledge, no baggage about playing that role. Listen, I’m with you. The first time I even thought this, I though “ye gods, is it as bad as Zaza?” But I can think of worse things than placeholder bigs who thrive as agitator bench defenders.

Of course, there are more options than these three. I’ve selected three to play around with because they’re sort of representative of the directions the team might move. They could invest in another pseudo-project, like Wright, in the hopes they secure a longer-term contributor and athlete. They could pay for a more proven commodity, like Splitter, and run the risk of over-investing in a single role. Or they could gird their loins take on an unglamorous veteran who embraces the team deficiencies.

Whatever they do, I’m certain that I’ll be wrong about it. There are always trades and unforeseen eventualities that shape a roster, but idle conjecture is one of the best and least harmful aspects of fandom.  As more concrete possibilities materialize, we’ll be all over it. For now, let the imagination run wild.  

Doing Meyers Things

Following the progress of rookies in the NBA can be tantalizing, promising and horrifying all at the same time. Coaches tolerate youthful mistakes in the hope that a second round gem will develop into a role player, or a lottery pick will realize his potential with increased minutes on the floor. Rarely, however, does a team feature five rookies on its roster, as the Trail Blazers have done this season. Damian Lillard has exceeded all expectations, Victor Claver has proven valuable in spot minutes off the bench, Will Barton has intrigued with remarkable athleticism, and Joel Freeland has largely been a disappointment, however no rookie has had a more interesting year for the Blazers than Meyers Leonard.

He debuted in a season opening win against the Lakers that saw him collect as many personal fouls as rebounds. Minutes through out the start of the season were sporadic and unpredictable as Meyers flashed glimpses of the potential that led Portland to spend a lottery pick, but the two-handed, rim-rocking dunks were accompanied by ugly defensive sequences on the other end. All too often Leonard found himself in the middle of the lane, halfway between a driving guard and his man behind him. Granted, the often porous perimeter defense the Blazers displayed this season put the rookie big man at a disadvantage; still, his defensive lapses have been too numerous to discount as a product of team defense.

His propensity to go from a mind numbing defensive mistake to a roaring dunk on the other end led me to coin the phrase “Meyers things” to describe his style of play. For example, quite a few times this year Meyers has unleashed a spinning jump hook in the lane that seems to always catch defenders by surprise. His catch and shoot motion, all while facing away from the basket looks more like a 6^th grader too eager to shoot than a professional basketball player, yet the shot seems to find the basket more often than not.  The same feathery touch has been on display as Leonard drains 18 footers, reminiscent of a young LaMarcus Aldridge. Now, I’m not saying Meyers is a comparable shooter to Aldridge, but if the Blazers can play two big men at the same time, both with the threat to hit from the outside, driving lanes will open up for Blazer wings to penetrate and finish at the rim.  

With all that said, the game appears to be slowing down for Meyers as the season draws to a close. He looks more confident with the ball in his hands at the offensive end, and spends less time in no-man’s-land on the defensive side of the ball. However, if he wants to become a legitimate starting center, he still has quite a bit of work to do. The remaining weaknesses in his post defense have been exploited by the likes of Al Jefferson and Marc Gasol in recent games, and he must also learn how to use his fouls more wisely. All too often you see Meyers go for a hard foul instead of rising up to contest a layup. Hard fouls underneath can be an excellent tool for guards overmatched by post players, but Meyers can’t give up silly fouls in the same situation against the likes of Mike Conely and Jeff Teague.

I’ve enjoyed watching Meyers Leonard on the Blazers since the day he was drafted. I admittedly shed a tear watching the heart-warming reunion video with his brother, and I’ve celebrated his successes along with all the other Blazer fans in the city. With the playoffs officially out of the question and the roster thinned due to injuries, Meyers will get his chance to play significant minutes against top competition over the remaining five games. Hopefully Meyers will continue to improve and impress and Blazer fans will get to watch him do “Meyers things” for many years to come.  

Let's Argue

This is what we do, right? The Worldwide Leader puts out a list, however arbitrary, and us members of the basketball internet debate its results. We grimace and guffaw and condescend and clamor, in the end generating plenty of sound (and surely some fury) that ultimately signifies nothing.

I’m not implying that this is necessarily a total waste of time or an ultimately pointless exercise. Discourse is good, especially if it can lead to a more thorough and refined understanding of the subject. But sometimes a list is just a list and we shouldn’t get overly sentimental with the results.

That being said, I was curious how these 111 contributors would treat the Trail Blazers. It can be argued that Portland lacks a true “star” in the sense that nobody on the team carries the national marketing weight of a LeBron or Durant. However, it does have an anchor in two-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, a player whose on-court production cannot be trifled with, even if his methods almost always will be.

Aldridge is currently the only Portland player ranked in this top 30 (he’s 25th) and barring a sudden and overwhelming outpouring of love for Wes Matthews, he will remain Portland’s sole representative. This seems fair. While Nic Batum and the aforementioned Matthews are solid contributors, they are still young and any argument saying they are top-30 players would be a hard one to make. 

Perhaps the only arguments one could make are: 1. Aldridge is too low and therefore underrated and 2. He should not have dropped 5 spots since the last iteration of the list. Without going into an in-depth comparison with every player on the list, let’s look at the players who immediately bookend Aldridge. One spot lower is Brook Lopez, an offense first (and maybe only) center who has become a focal point for a slow, but albeit effective offense. One spot higher is Tyson Chandler, reigning Defensive Player of the Year who basically only shoots when immediately next to the basket. 

Aldridge in a way is a medium between these two poles. He is able to create shots and score in more ways than just receiving lobs, while also being a pretty good defender who is mobile and can challenge shots with excellent length. Aldridge has been less efficient than Lopez on offense and isn’t a Chandler-like game-changer defensively. But there is merit to moderation and LaMarcus provides that. Unfortunately, being stuck in the middle isn’t an enviable position and thus is the nature of how Aldridge goes along underrated. 

Arguing that LaMarcus should not have slid in rank at all since last season is perhaps a little more tenuous. Some of Aldridge’s numbers are down this year, most notably true shooting percentage, which is set to be his lowest in 5 years. This is an important stat for a player who does create a lot of his offense from jump shooting. It also does not help that he isn’t getting to the line as much. However, he has become a better defensive rebounder, is assisting at a career high rate, and still doesn’t turn the ball over very much for a high-usage player. Overall, his PER has dropped more than 2 full points from last year, but remains at an impressive 20.3. 

So it seems the fall of LaMarcus, while not precipitous, might be somewhat deserved. However, his overall rating does not appear to do him justice, as the perception of his style continues to outweigh his actual production. It appears Aldridge will remain Portland’s semaphore, tall and distinct, projecting a message that many find too distant to truly understand. 

Will Barton and the Rites of Spring

Perhaps the most reliable spring tradition for lottery-bound teams is the random explosion of an end-of-bench talent. Now is the time when players buried all season finally see the court, and fans are shocked to find that NBA players—even NBA players that hardly play—are pretty good. Ha Seung-Jin scored a career high on April 20, and Luke Babbitt reeled off a string of double digit games right around this time last year. Spring on bad teams is when the spotlight finds turns to the orchestra pit, and the second fiddle gets a solo.

Into this proud tradition steps Will Barton. A favorite around these parts to be sure, Barton has nonetheless failed to carve out consistent minutes during competitive games all year. Last night, he put that all behind him and erupted for 22 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and three steals. Unsurprisingly, all were career highs.

When a player like Barton goes off like he did, the questions become: can we learn from this? Are we watching the future unfold before our very eyes? Has Will Barton proved at last that he bends time and space around his unnaturally spindly fingers. speeding headlong through the vortexes he creates only to throw down reverse alley-oop dunks?  Almost always, the answer is no.

I totally get why fans flip for spring blossoms, and I fall for it myself. This morning, I was talking myself into the idea that Barton proved last night that he brings an extra element to the offense with his style of off-ball movement. His aggressive help defense, I reasoned, could be refined into something like a missile deployment system, a kind of surface-to-air weapon picking opponents’ passes out of their flight paths.  This could all be true, I guess. Last night could have been the start of Will Barton’s reign as a perimeter mainstay in Portland. But I don’t know that, and history has taught me to be wary of placing too much into this kind of performance.

I like thinking about why performances like Bartons surprise me. It’s a funny idea, that NBA players should shock us by being effective. It’s as if fans imagine a practice wherein the starters win every scrimmage they play 80-0. Fans, I think, and certainly I myself fall into a trap: we think of “quality” as either a duality or a simple sliding scale. A player is “good” or “bad;” a starter is an “8” while his backup is a “4”. Even where we introduce some subjectivity into the idea of player comparison—the numerical scale—we tend to treat player quality as a fixed role rather than a set of attributes unique to individual players.

Really, games like the one Will just had are windows into the players’ experience, a night where we see what they do every day. In practice, Barton doesn’t sit on the bench and think about defensive responsibility, he cuts to the rim for lobs from Eric Maynor. How odd it must be, to be a player with such a dynamic style that you work on most days behind closed doors while fans on the other side talk about your ability in the future tense. Let me make an analogy a little closer to my own experience: being Will Barton would be like writing every day, and storing my writing away where no one would see it. My improvements, my present qualities, none of them would get seen. Every NBA scrub, then, is a basketball Kafka.

I’ve been grasping lately at reasons to keep the end of the season invigorated. We all have, really, except for the fortunate fans of the privileged squads. Readjusting my reaction to the odd outburst from bench players might help. Rather than see these performances as tea leaves for the future, I can tune in hoping to see something I wouldn’t be able to in December. Maybe Barton doesn’t develop the way last night’s game makes fans hope he will. Either way, the promise of these otherwise meaningless games is the chance to see the craft of somebody who is practicing it every day, whether we’re watching or not. 

Rockets 116 - Blazers 98: Statistical Confirmation, and Chalupa Withdrawal

Houston Rockets

116

Final Recap | Box Score

98

Portland Trail Blazers

	LaMarcus Aldridge, PF40 MIN | 12-19 FG | 8-10 FT | 13 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 32 PTS | -10 As much as it seemed like a senseless risk, Aldridge was on the floor against the Rockets on Friday Night. LMA was able to turn the focus of the game into a dual between him and Harden by half, which was an entertaining watch. However, his valiant effort became fruitless as the second half wore on. Still a great game in spite of any ankle issues.
	Victor Claver, SF27 MIN | 4-8 FG | 1-1 FT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 2 TO | 9 PTS | -13 Claver was pretty decent in another start without Nicolas Batum. He made some nice plays, but as expected counteracted them with a few really poor plays. He wasn’t worse than Francisco Garcia, though, which can be viewed positive.
	J.J. Hickson, C23 MIN | 5-9 FG | 1-1 FT | 8 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 11 PTS | -13 Hickson was reduced to 23 minutes, which was sort of interesting. An injured Aldridge played 40 while Hickson played minimal minutes. He produced his typical effort in those minutes, but you wonder if the organization and Hickson are dividing.
	Damian Lillard, PG40 MIN | 4-12 FG | 2-3 FT | 3 REB | 7 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 11 PTS | -15 Lillard struggled from the field scoring again, and turned the ball over one too many times for the Blazers to make a serious come back run. Lillard has stumbled down the stretch, but hasn’t done enough to ruin the lustrous season he has put together.
	Wesley Matthews, SG38 MIN | 6-19 FG | 5-6 FT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 18 PTS | -14 When Wes was attacking the hoop, he was pretty good on offense. However, he was 1-11 from three otherwise. He had his hands full with Harden, but that was more of a tough match up than a bad defensive effort by Matthews.
	Meyers Leonard, C25 MIN | 2-6 FG | 2-2 FT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 6 PTS | -7 Meyers wasn’t as potent coming off the bench, which is no surprise. He missed some shots that other nights he could finish, like the floater he knocked off the back rim in transition. It is all about the experience for Leonard in the home stretch.
	Eric Maynor, PG15 MIN | 0-4 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 3 TO | 0 PTS | -15 Maynor didn’t hit a shot, and had three turnovers to his one assist. One of his lesser nights in a successful revival in Portland.
	Will Barton, SG21 MIN | 4-9 FG | 1-1 FT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 9 PTS | +1 Will was pretty exciting to watch as he hit over the 20 minute mark. His only real questionable play was when he fired a pass straight out of bounds, but he also had 4 assists to go along with the singular turnover. It was nice to see Barton get on the floor and look like an NBA player.

FIVE THINGS WE SAW

1. The Blazers officially were knocked out of playoff contention, which is the statistical confirmation of what had loomed for weeks now.
2. Morey Ball was in full force tonight with Harden leading the way as the Rockets shot over 50% from the field, 40% from three, and shot 35 Free Throws. There was a lot of possessions for both teams, but the Trail Blazers couldn’t hold pace.
3. Related, Portland shot 2-20 from the three point line. Shooting 10% from behind the arc is certainly factored in to the Rockets victory.
4. Sasha Pavlovic got in, bricked a three, and went to the bench. It was sort of unfortunate to see the epitome of the Blazers bench this season get minutes.
5. Portland’s fans booed loudly after Joel Freeland missed the shot to get to 100 points for free chalupas. Which is just really, really strange.

Rockets Blazers Preview: When Time Catches Up With Feelings

Many who have followed Portland this season already concieved of the idea that the team wasn’t going to be making the playoffs at the end of the year. Whether or not there was a large amount of evidence supporting this notion, it still wasn’t mathmatically a sure thing. Well, it wasn’t until tonight, as Portland being eliminated from the playoffs is official if another loss is logged in the standings tonight.

Even if there was an expectation this was going to happen eventually, there is still a feeling in the air when that final nail in the coffin is hit. Creeping into the mind are thoughts—such as “will they make the playoffs next year,” and “what moves are needed to be made?”—that will be debated all summer long. Tonight could be the ghastly confirmation of all the feelings that this Trail Blazers could not keep up its previous pace to make the playoffs.

As for tonight, the Blazers will see the return of LaMarcus Aldridge in spite of the fanbase’s general feelings. Meyers Leonard will probably be moved to the bench, even after posting some efforts as a starter that inspired hope. Batum is more than likely another scratch, as he is listed doubtful, but opposing starting small forward Chandler Parsons will be a scratch for Houston too. Portland may end up avoiding the inevitable if Asik and Harden stay relatiively quiet, but it really is avoiding the inevitable at this point.