All-Star Showdown: The Glide vs. The Natural

Sunday Brandon Roy was in Dallas taking part in his third All-Star Weekend. A lingering hamstring injury kept him off the court, but it doesn’t diminish the substantial achievement: Roy is the first Blazer since Clyde Drexler to be selected to three straight All-Star teams. Now, The Glide was my boyhood hero. As such, he sets the gold standard for all subsequent Trail Blazer wings. Drexler slashed, defended, floated, glided, and led Portland to the finals—twice.  While he was a Blazer (1983-94), the team never missed the playoffs. Clyde was an original member of the Dream Team, a 10 time all star, the Western Conference’s answer to Michael Jordan, an NBA Champion (albiet with the Rockets), a first ballot Hall of Fame selection and named one of the 50 Greatest Players in NBA History. These acolades shape the lens through which I view all Trail Blazer wings. Drexler’s greatness tints how I look at Portland’s new three time All-Star, Brandon Roy.

Now when talking about legends like Drexler and how they might compare to the stars of today, the conversation cannot be based on raw box score statistics alone. The Drexler-era Blazers played at a much faster pace. For instance, the Blazers averaged 103.5 possessions per game through Drexler’s first four seasons according to Basketball-Reference. In contrast, during Roy’s four year tenure, the Blazers averaged just 87.6 possessions per game. If Roy were to play at Drexler’s pace, Roy’s per game statistics last year adjust from 22.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists, and 1.1 steals, to 26.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1.3 steals. As you can see, these are more Drexler-like numbers. (For more on the issue of pace, Tom Haberstroh of HoopData wrote a great article on the deception of pace last week that does a great job of exploring just how much pace inflates statistics.)

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The Ex-Pat Visits Nets Ghost Town

(Editor’s note: Our own Bill Ryan, the Ex-Pat, was on hand Wednesday for the stunningly under-attended matchup between the Nets and Bucks. A little off the Blazers track, but this is just too crazy to pass up. Click through for full story and more photos.)

I almost didn’t go. My enthusiasm for watching the Nets—already precariously low as well, they’re the Nets—was waning.

But a glass of whiskey & a $10 loan for train fare sparked the strangest professional sports experience I’ve attended.

The parking lots next to the Nets’ arena were as empty as the ones around Giants Stadium. Vincent Montana, shuttle driver and owner of an awesome name, said this was the fewest passengers he’d ever ferried. Only seven Nets fans rode the 153 bus to the Izod center. Portland, this was not.

The only car we saw on our side of a long stretch of yet-to-be-plowed road was nose-first into a concrete barrier with its hazards blinking, waiting to be towed away. Our bus driver shook his head.

“I can’t believe they didn’t cancel the game,” Vincent said. “This is horrible.”

But I’m damn glad I went. I was the Omega man. I was Henry Bemis from “Time Enough At Last” (it’s not fair!) It was sublime, unreal. Walking the concourse or buying a beer was an uneasy combination of exciting, strange, and funny. Eight food handlers for a single customer and his one beer. The paper said 1018 people braved the storm to watch the Nets flail, but I’ll go to my grave believing it was half that number. Maybe.

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Slam Dunk Competition Drinking Game

Nate Robinson literally jumps the shark.

Fellow basketball and booze enthusiasts: There are better things to do on a Saturday evening than watching missed dunks, confused judges, and endless Sprite commercials. That said, we now present you with the first annual Portland Roundball Society Slam Dunk Competiton Drinking Game™. If you have any additional ideas for ruining your liver while you watch slam dunks, let us know. Until then, pints up. We have a lot of drinking to do.

• If you have no clue who DeMar DeRozan is, take a drink.
• If Nate Robinson dunks over a living creature—mammal or otherwise—take a drink.
• If Nate Robinson dunks over a deceased creature—cadavar or zombie—take two drinks.
• If Nate Robinson dunks over Mark Cuban’s ego, take a drink.
• If Nate Robinson dunks over Dwight Howard dressed as Wonder Woman, take four drinks.
• If Amar’e Stoudemire is wearing a Cavs jersey during the contest, take a drink.
• If Nate Robinson dunks over Mike D’Antoni’s mustache, take a drink.
• If judge Michael Jordan says something arrogant about Bryon Russell, take a drink.
• If you think Rudy Fernandez should be out there defending his title, take a drink.
• If Gerald Wallace dunks so hard it rips a whole in the space/time continuum, take three drinks.
• If a dunker misses four attempts, take a drink.
• If the dunker continues missing, take a drink for every botched attempt after five, and two drinks for misses after seven.
• If you are forced to watch a commercial for a TNT show you will never watch, take a drink.
• If Chris “Birdman” Andersen storms the court and misses five consecutive minutes of dunks, take six drinks.
• Anytime somone yells “OH!,” take a drink.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Dwight Jaynes evaluates the chances that the Blazers make a move. For the record, I do not believe that Jerryd Bayless is available, I think that Jaynes just wishes he were. He has his idea of how basketball ought to be played and Bayless at point guard does not fit that model. I respect Jaynes’ position, but I don’t think Pritchard agrees.

• Exhibit A: Casey Holdahl gets Kevin Pritchard’s thoughts on the trade deadline. Pritchard mentions that Bayless is playing well, does not mention Blake or Outlaw when talking about “keepers.”

• Brian T. Smith says the Blazers made an offer for Tyrus Thomas which doesn’t mean much in itself, Pritchard has probably made offers for LeBron James too.

• Sean Meagher of OregonLive.com has a great roundup of trade deadline links from around the league.

• Wendell Maxey does not think Portland will make a move until the offseason. Maxey has called the previous two trade deadlines dead-on, even when all the Raef Lafrenz rumors were swirling last season. He is like Miss Cleo but without the accent.

• But, just in case, SJ from Rip City Project gives us his thoughts on a potential trade for Thomas.

• Dave Deckard answers some great questions over at BlazersEdge.

• Matt Scheelar (nee’ “Sheed”) of Bust A Bucket wants to know if anybody in Portland cares about a Roy-less All Star game.

• The Basketball Jones does Dallas, and gives their special take on the “where amazing happens” commercials.

• NBA Playbook has video evidence for why you don’t save the ball from going out of bounds under your own basket.

Are the Portland Trail Blazers a Playoff Team?

This game will work on my PS3, right?

Well, are the Portland Trail Blazers a playoff team? Good question, glad I asked. Let’s break out our inner mathlete and crunch some numbers:

Current Portland record: 31-24 
Current playoff ranking: 8th seed
Games remaining: 27
At home: 12
Winning percentage of visiting opponents: .477 
On the road: 15
Winning percentage of home opponents: .470 (the Nets’ .077 winning percentage really skews this number)

Using the Basketball Reference Playoff Probabilities Report the Blazers have a respectable 83.5% of making it to the postseason, and a hilariously depressing 0.9% chance of winning the Larry O’Brien NBA Championship Trophy. ESPN’s John Hollinger and his Statbot 2000™ predict that Portland has a 78.4% chance of extending their season, yet they are far more generous when it comes to the Blazers winning the NBA championship: 1%. (Gas up the jet, we’re going to Vegas and we’re putting the entire PRS budget on those 1% odds.) 

While these numbers mean less to a team that has had nothing go according to script during this season, they do illustrate how the once-packed Western Conference has loosened up some. Both Houston and Memphis need a serious second half turnaround to threaten Portland (or San Antonio, who Hollinger ranks lower in the playoff shuffle than Portland). 

Over the remaining games the Blazers need to play slightly better than .500 ball (a 14-13 record) to all-but-secure a postseason birth. If 45 wins in the bare minimum, is it enough? Well, it wouldn’t have been last year. The Phoenix Suns won 46 games last season and they were golfing by mid-April. The magic number of 45 is contingent on teams like Houston and Memphis continuing their downward slide. If either teams heats back up, or makes a big move before the trade deadline, 45 wins might not be enough. Plus, there are better goals for Portland to just arrive in the playoffs and be forced to play the Lakers (bad), or Denver (worse), without home court advantage.

But considering how stressful this season has been on the Blazers faithful (I used to be handsome, but by the end of this year I’m going to look the either Van Gundy brother), just knowing that the playoffs are within their reach is reassuring. 

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Mike Barrett has some love for Dante Cunningham:

Dante Cunningham continues to show that he was the steal of the 2009 NBA Draft. After scoring 14 against OKC on Tuesday night, he had 13 points in this game, and was 6 for 7 from the field. The amazing thing about Dante is that you can’t begin to measure his value to this team by looking at the box score. Yes, he was dunked on by Amare Stoudemire. But, he also dunked on Stoudemire.

• The Oregonian’s Jason Quick goes behind the locker room door, where Howard was pissed:

Behind the Blazers locker room door, before the coaching staff entered, Howard went on a tirade in front of his teammates.

He cursed. He yelled. And he demolished a huge tub that players soak their feet in after games.

“It was shocking,’’ rookie Dante Cunningham said. “It was, ‘WHOA! HO!’ I mean, there was water and ice flying everywhere. It was like, ‘OK, maybe we really did something wrong.’ We all sat back and thought about it. I think it got everybody’s attention.’’

• Coup from Rip City Project talks about the evolution of LaMarcus Aldridge:

The biggest change is you can tell Aldridge knows that nobody is going to take care of his mess on the glass. He’s putting a body on people and going after the ball, rather than holding down a zone so Oden or Przybilla can gobble up boards. He hasn’t been perfect, having had trouble getting good position — at times even outright conceding post position before a play develops — but this is a different player we’re seeing now, one who has transitioned into the middle stages of his evolution after years of slight improvements.

• Kelly Dwyer in his Behind the Boxscore piece calls last night’s victory to be possibly the biggest win of the year for Portland, and praises Aldridge’s defense as well:

LaMarcus Aldridge(notes) led Portland with 22 points, but I may have been most impressed with his defense. May have.

• Matt Scheelar from Bust a Bucket lauds Steve Blake’s 20 point 12 assist game. Also, Sophia Brugato, recently interviewed here at PRS, had her first TV appearance on “Talking Ball.”

• Paul Coro of The Arizona Republic has the view from Phoenix.

• Michael Schwartz  from TrueHoop Network sister blog Vally of the Suns says The Phoenix Suns just can’t stand prosperity, and has this quote from Alvin Gentry:

“We got our ass kicked, plain and simple,” Suns head coach Alvin Gentry sternly proclaimed. “There’s no excuses; they outplayed us in every phase of the game. They outhustled us, they came up with big plays, they made shots, they made passes. They made everything that we didn’t do.

• If you’re down for more schadenfreude, Seth Pollack of Bright Side of the Sun has the tale of woe.

• Brandon Roy is going to Dallas, even though he isn’t playing.

• Joe Freeman of The Oregonian reports that the Blazers are happy for the win, and happy to have a break.

• Jason Quick has another great article on Kevin Pritchard’s thoughts leading up to the trade deadline:

“You have to be willing to give up something and lose it for nothing,” Pritchard says. “That’s high-risk poker is what that is. And that’s exactly the conundrum we are going through. We are going to be faced with something that’s going to say we will potentially lose a couple of players forever for somebody we will have for 26 games. 

“And when it’s put in those terms, it really makes you think. ‘For 26 games … really?”’

• Dwight Jaynes calls the Blazers “Cockroaches,” but in a good way, not like Ricky Davis.

• Ben Golliver from BlazersEdge has this “Cleaning out the Notebook” post with video of Batum’s defense on Durant, nifty charts, and local high school hoops news.

• For the stat geeks out there, you’ve got to check out these charts by Jeremy Greenhouse from Baseball Analyst using data from Ryan J. Parker, the Basketball Geek.

• So tell us what you think of Pritchard’s stance heading into the trade deadline. In my view, it doesn’t look like anybody is just giving talent away, so I agree with Pritchard. I’m very glad that Portland did not deal for Richard Jefferson or Vince Carter, potentially giving up a good young player in the process. Very few teams make hugely lopsided deals for financial reasons alone, that’s why the gift wrapping of Pau Gasol was so shocking. Of course, you might see an Eric Maynor, or similar type player, get traded as the fee for taking on a contract. Or perhaps a Chandler for Okafor swap, but by and large, most trades made for financial reasons will be more similar to the Devin Brown and Rasul Butler trades made by New Orleans than the Camby to the Clippers (for a second round pick) trade made by Denver a few seasons back. Portland may try and see what they can get for Blake and Outlaw’s expiring contracts, and I could see Webster getting moved, but I think that’s about it. Bayless, Batum, and Fernandez represent a lot of production and potential for very little money at the moment, in fact, all three player’s salaries combined are just a smidge over Martell Webster’s contract. I think out of the three, only Rudy Fernandez might hold more value to another team than he would to Portland. Roy plays Rudy’s position, Batum is better at small forward, and Bayless is beginning to emerge as a side-kick for Roy. The problem with trading Rudy is that, again, he has a small contract and to get a star in return Portland would have to pair Rudy with Przybilla or Miller and maybe more to match salaries. Now, a player we might be willing to trade Rudy for might be worth Fernandez alone, but would he be worth Fernandez plus Przybilla?  What do you think? Let us know in the comments.

Pulling Us Back

Silvio: “Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in.”

A few games ago, after a frustrating loss to the Lakers, Coach McMillan snapped at me a bit when I tried to gauge his frustration. Once the press had filed out, I told him, “it’s not like I’m trying to get your goat—it’s just that these past few games really have been emotional.”

“I know man,” he said. McMillan tapped me on the stomach and walked out. Tonight’s game, a 108-101 Portland victory in Phoenix, was every bit as emotional as the rest. By all accounts today was kind of like that day as well. Word is that Kevin Pritchard was approached earlier by members of the team who asked that he not make any trades.

Last night I wrote that the Blazers needed a new perscription—something to enhance their energy, mood and confidence. No one expected they would find it Phoenix, a place they’d lost their previous eight straight games. The elixir was one of the following (and perhaps a bit a little bit of both):

Either Portland, after facing two lock-down teams, were unshackled by the Suns atrocious defense. Or, the admittedly tired Blazers team found extra energy and motivation in proving to Kevin Pritchard that he really doesn’t need to make a trade.

Whatever the cause, the effect is a jubilant Blazers squad—one who enters the All-Star break having played the most games of any NBA team. Yet on the second night of back-to-backs, Portland is a staggering 10 and 3.

Instead of falling behind early, as the Blazers have been wont to do lately, the Blazers instead threw Phoenix into a 10-2 first quarter hole. From there on out it was all Portland, who shot a whopping 58% from the floor.

In the final seconds of the third quarter and beginning of the fourth, Phoenix went on a 15-0 run and whittled a 22 point deficit down to seven. The Blazers responded with eight straight points on consecutive threes from Steve Blake and Nicolas Batum, and a fast-break lay-in by Dante Cunningham.

It was just one of the many plays that place Wednesday’s performance among the best of Cunningham’s short career. In just 21 minutes the rookie had 14 points on six of seven shooting, plus solid defense, a terrific block, and a dunk that belonged on SportsCenter’s Top Plays. But you can see it right here:

Despite laying eggs since the beginning of February, Steve Blake got the start, presumably to guard Steve Nash. But it was to be Blake’s night on the other end—he scored a season-high 20 while still managing to dish out 12 assists. This was Blake’s highest point total since March 23rd of last year.

Both Andre Miller (20 points) and LaMarcus Aldridge(22 points), had fine games as well, and once again Aldridge found himself the center of defensive attention in the final quarter. The starting lineup, who all scored in double figures, was rounded out by Martell Webster and Juwan Howard, who each finished with 10 each.

And while Webster and Blake, who’ve both been particularly horrible in the last two games, found their stroke, Rudy Fernandez continues to fail (and I don’t mean flop, although surely he’s doing that too) on offense. Fernandez played a season low 6:31 and missed his only shot attempt, yet still managed two turnovers.

So with the exception of Fernandez, the Blazer players all manage to enter the All-Star break with a much needed win and a great final impression in the mind of Pritchard, who’ll no doubt be fielding a number of calls in the coming eight days (the trade deadline is February 18th). And even though Rudy wet the bed against the Suns, something tells me he too will be back in Portland next week.

Blazers vs. Suns - Preview

Doesn’t this picture just make you hate Blaze the Trail Cat? He’s worthless.Just stop already.

The Blazers have already played the most games of any NBA team, but the blows keep coming, and now the NBA’s most exhausted team (there really is no fact to back this up, but if you watched the game last night, you know what I speak of) has a back-to-back game on the road against a Phoenix Suns team that has won five consecutive games. Sure, why not? Also, the Suns will be playing with a nerf basketball on a six foot hoop (finally, Steve Nash will dunk) while the Blazers will be forced to use a medicine ball and shoot upon the novelty 25-point basket—last seen in the MTV Rock and Jock game—in the rafters.

As Portland barrels towards eight losses in their past dozen games without Brandon Roy, the Suns are basking in a win streak that has (temporarily) muzzled the deafening Amare Stoudemire trade chatter. Unless Stoudemire is moved this afternoon (*crosses fingers, suggestively rubs Steve Kerr voodoo doll*) the Suns will enter the All-Star break firmly in the middle of the playoff hunt with their leading scorer still on the roster. The Suns are the team you want to play after posting a weak 77 points the previous night, but with Nash all-but guaranteed a double-double, Stoudemire scoring at will, and the hulking Robin Lopez under the net, this is not an ideal matchup for a Blazers team running on fumes. Let’s just get this over with.

Tip-off: 6pm
TV: Comcast
Las Vegas Line: Phoenix -9