Blazers vs Raptors - Preview

Well, it could be worse—the Blazers could have paid $60 million for Hedo Turkoglu. In a season that has featured wildly inconsistent play, shattered ligaments, and enough heartbreak and drama to fill a teenager’s livejournal entry, the only given is that all Blazers fans can say, with great confidence and relief, well at least they didn’t sign Hedo.

Turkoglu has became the albatross dangling from Toronto’s neck (and payroll), a 12 point a game scorer that will only get worse with age and whose season highlight came with a now infamous one word answer during a post-game interview. He won’t wear a protective mask that the team requires of him and he has distracted the media’s attention away from an otherwise excellent Raptors team. He’s everything Portland wanted to avoid and more. 

Unfortunately for a Blazers team that made things uncomfortably close against the lowly Nets, the Raptors are about more than the Turkish Jordan. Chris Bosh is game time decision with an ankle injury, a status he shares with Marcus Camby. The Raptors might not even need Bosh, having just won a pair of games (albeit against New Jersey and Washington) with their superstar on the bench picking out condos in Miami (or New York) for next season. Toronto is far from flashy but the have solid depth—hence winning when Boshless—and a dependable selection of role players from Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, and Mr. Step-Out-of-Bounds-While-Shooting-a-Three himself, Jarrett Jack. While Jack lost his job to just about everyone during his stay in Portland, his numbers this year aren’t too far from Andre Miller’s line.

We’ll save some of the Raptors talk until later in the day when we’ll post a great interview with Sam Holako from Raptors Republic, who guarantees Chris Bosh will be on that team next year. See? That’s what we professionals call a teaser.

Tip-off: 4pm
TV: Comcast
Las Vegas Line: -3

Welcome (and Worrisome), Blazers Top Nets 102-93

Neil Leffkowitz, Blazers season ticket-holder for 31 years

In the immortal words of Neil Leffkowitz, Blazers’ season ticket-holder for 31 years, tonight’s game was “worrisome.”

Neil’s NY vacation was in peril. How could a fan of his caliber—with the face paint and the dedication to stay after to “try to get (his) sign on television”—enjoy his Broadway plays and exorbitant cab rides if the Blazers couldn’t stop a 4th quarter surge from New Jersey?

Turns out, Neil gets to enjoy Manhattan, and the Blazers get a much-needed win.

So. Why worrisome? Well, Camby’s ankle for one. Though it’s looking like just a minor sprain (he’s listed as day to day). But at the time, Neil and I hadn’t heard anything about the injury since our hearts skipped a beat in the first. Allow us that one.

For two, it’s the Blazers’ infuriating refusal to snap the necks of beaten teams. The first half was a massacre, tarnished only by Camby’s early exit, and the Izod Center’s mistaken belief that clips of “Jersey Shore” are worthy of the Jumbotron during timeouts.

Whatever happened to the Jumbotron fare of yesteryear? The follow-the-ball-under-the-ballcap and the “Nationwide Chain Hardware Store Grandprix” wherein chainsaw races the propane barbeque?

After leading by 19 at halftime, the Nets clawed to within 5 around the 3 minute mark of the 4th, before Brandon Roy and Andre Miller combined to finally, mercifully, finish them off.

See, I was expecting a statement game from Aldridge. Especially after he toyed with Yi (and to a slightly lesser extent, Brook Lopez). Through three quarters Aldridge racked up a solid 27-7-4 (on 13-20 shooting) and helped frustrate Lopez.

Unfortunately, it was The 4th quarter no-show from Aldridge that worried us. He had a terrific first half (8-10 shooting, 17 points, 3 tears from Yi Jianlian) but again vanished late.

For better or worse, Aldridge sets the tone. When he was aggressive, when he was breezing past the olé defense from Yi, when the turn-arounds were dropping, the team followed. When his turn-around, fade-away, “I’m settling” shot found rim towards the end of the third and nearly all of the fourth, well, the Blazers mostly followed right along.

Luckily, Roy & Miller picked up the slack in the fourth. Roy, after a pedestrian middle set, popped back up whack-a-mole-style after the Nets focused on LaMarcus & the Blazers began settling for jumpers. Again, in the 4th, you got your fix of Flashes of Roy when he scored 10 of the last 14 points.

It’s frustrating to watch Roy waver between the dominant, banging-bodies driver we know he can be and the slightly tentative, settling for well-challenged shots jump shooter he falls into now and again. It’s fair to blame the hamstring, but one still yearns. You see the first period in which he scored 10, and you hope it’ll last. I’m falling for all this hope. I’m making myself believe in the same way I used to believe in Santa — I believe because life’s better if it’s true. And tonight, Roy looked truly like he’s on the mend.

So what was it that let the Nets back in after a 19-point lead at halftime?

I walked away thinking it was the lazy offense, the flabby shot selection. But looking back, it’s hard to point to a time when the Blazers flat-out went cold. The truth is, the Nets snuck back in through the War of Attrition (and also caught fire with Courtney Lee and Devin Harris for about 8 minutes, each on their way to 28 points apiece) and the rare boost from a crowd that very rarely has a chance to cheer. Once the Blazers righted the ship, however, the usual sounds of grumbling and the occasional boo were interrupted by Blazer faithful cheering their team on through the last seconds of the game.

You gotta give it up for Trailblazers fans coming out to support their squad at a deathtrap like the Izod Center. After the game, a guy behind me in line waiting for a very late bus told me their shuttle bus from the train “literally collapsed” on the overpass, where they were stuck for most of the first quarter waiting for working transport to whisk them away from the NJ Turnpike. Blazer love is a serious love.

For some, it borders on the lustful. Keadi Cutwright, an ex-P-town resident who braved seven years in California, only to move out to New York for work, showed up to the game rocking her “B Roy” jersey underneath a coat soaking from the rain.

“I’m so excited to be near them again,” she said. I laughed, and agreed.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Who’s ready to forget the last two games ever happened? Well tonight Portland plays New Jersey, where a win will cheer the Blazers faithful up, and a loss will be the worst defeat of the season. No pressure, boys. A loss here might not cost Portland a playoff spot, but it could endanger them needlessly and (at best) possibly seal Portland into a first round date with the Lakers. Including tonight, Portland has 14 remaining games against teams who currently have a lower win percentage than they do. The Blazers also have 15 road games and only nine home games left. Portland really needs to take care of business and consistently beat the teams they are supposed to beat if they want to avoid the lottery.

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of The Oregonian thinks that the Nets are just the tonic to help wash the bad taste out of our collective mouths.

• Check out TrueHoop Network sister blog Nets are Scorching  for the New Jersey gallows humor perspective.

• Matt Scheelar of Bust a Bucket thinks the Blazers have got this one.

• Checking in on how our dearly departed duo is doing: Both Read Between the Baselines and TrueHoop Network sister site ClipperBlog are liking what they see from Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw. Kevin Pelton adds his thoughts on the Clippers’ recent acquisitions.

• Brandon Roy is one of only 11 players to ever post an offensive rating of 122 or better with a usage rate of 25% or higher. This is a good thing.

• I got the above statistic from this article by Neil Paine talking about how good Anfernee Hardaway was. Like Roy, Penny was a big guard who could play the point who started having some hamstring trouble. We can only hope that Roy doesn’t face the avalanche of injuries that Hardaway did. Or, worse, become as forgotten as ‘Lil Penny.

• Dwight Jaynes defends criticizing Nate McMillan.

• The Invisible Ninja has a data blog with some pretty moving charts (warning, may not work in Google Chrome). You can fiddle with the variables, but if you press play with the presets you can witness just how offensively impressive the Phoenix Suns used to be.  

• We’ve been telling you about the advantages of drafting and stashing talent overseas, however, there are risks. For instance, right now the Spurs hold the rights to Tiago Splitter, a mobile big that they would love to have come over as soon as possible. Bringing Splitter over is tricky because under the rookie scale Splitter would make $836,000. Right now, Splitter makes around 2.3 million, so he’d be taking a pretty massive pay cut to wear a Spurs jersey. However, there is hope for San Antonio, Article VIII, Section 2 of the CBA basically says that after being drafted, if a player doesn’t go to the team that selected him within three years, the team can then circumvent the rookie scale and try to sign him like a free agent using cap room or (according to Larry Coon’s FAQ #42) an exception like the MLE. That means that next year the Spurs can try to sign Splitter as they would any other free agent, but it may cost them a chance at a normal free agent. The Spurs had an issue like this with Luis Scola as well, but Scola had a difficult buyout issue and felt he wouldn’t get much playing time with the Spurs, so San Antonio traded him to the Rockets for basically nothing.

• Portland will be in similar situations with Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen, and Victor Claver. In an interview with BlazersEdge, Pritchard stated that Portland had helped to structure Freeland’s contract so that he could be brought over when Portland is ready. Koponen apparently really wants to come play in the NBA next season, so he may either get brought in, or have his rights traded. Claver is still under contract to his current team and wants to wait to be brought over. Now, here is where things might get dicey. See, the 2011 CBA negotiations are not going so well right now, but under the league’s proposal, there would be no MLE type exceptions, so if a team doesn’t have cap room, they would be unable to sign stashed players for above the rookie scale. Of course, prior picks could be grandfathered in somehow, but other than that, successful teams picking foreign players to stash would be a thing of the past. Now some might say that forcing teams to stick to a rookie scale is a good thing since the rookie scale was put into place to prevent rookies from holding out for a better contract. If the MLE and similar exceptions were eliminated and no other changes were made to the rookie scale rules, foreign players would hypothetically only place themselves in the draft when they were ready to come over and felt that they would be drafted high enough to made the transition financially viable.

Blazers vs Nets - Preview

Welcome to the most important game… IN THE FUTURE OF EVER.

Pardon the hyperbole, and the Derrick Coleman image, but this is serious. Normally a visit to the Garden State is synonymous with a quick victory, but just for the sake of celebrating the half empty glass, let’s just say the Blazers lose to the Nets in the Izod Center: the season is over, right? Already teetering on the brink of the ping pong ball dance that is the draft lottery, Portland has dropped five of their last eight games and their playoff position is about as healthy as Brandon Roy’s battered hamstring. Losing to a team that has five victories on the year—for the sake of comparison, the Blazers picked up victory number five on November 10th of last year—might be enough to drastically change this team’s future. No playoffs. Roy to the bench. Webster out the door. The Trail Breakers taking up line dancing. Big changes.

Hence, the importance of this game.

New Jersey is, well, let’s just say that John Wall will look absolutely dashing in a Nets uniform next year. The worst thing to happen to Jay-Z since Kingdom Come, the Nets shouldn’t be the type of team that goes winless for over a month straight (November), but the combination of injuries, bad luck, and poor play have sunk the team to the deepest dregs of the standings. Brooke Lopez, Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Courtney Lee… this team really is not that bad. Yet they have lost seven in a row in their building, plus 11 of the past 12 as well. Just when the Nets hit rock bottom, the floor gives way and they fall another story. 

The Nets score an NBA low 90 points a game—Portland isn’t that much better at 97 PPG—and they seem to have already gotten their lone monthly win out of their system (beating Charlotte last week). The last time Portland lost in New Jersey they had Viktor Khryapa in their starting five, since then, the Blazers have won the last three games on the Nets’ court. If they fail to take number four, things are going to get worse before they get better.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Mike Barrett thinks the Blazers need to get it into gear if they want to make the postseason.

Portland is now 4-5 in the month of February, and is 11-13 in 2010. There is still time for a recovery, but time is not on their side. Of all the emotional body blows this team has taken this season, this one, self-inflicted as it was, may be the toughest to bounce back from. Monday we head out on a five-game road trip that could decide if this team makes it to the post season or not.

• The Oregonian’s Jason Quick sums up Camby’s “close, but no cigar” performance:

Newly acquired center Marcus Camby had 18 rebounds and four blocks, including two key rejections and one big offensive rebound down the stretch, but he was beaten to the key rebound of the game by Boozer.

“You gotta get that board,” McMillan said. “It’s the ball game.”

• Rip City Project designates Rudy Fernandez as the new Savior/Whipping Boy, I figured it would be Aldridge myself.

I’m officially nominating Rudy Fernandez for the Most Polarizing Blazer role now that Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw are out of town. His energy in the passing lanes and in transition is infectious to the rest of the team. He changes the game when he gets out and runs, as well as when he makes hard cuts to the rim. But when the defense swarms him and there’s no space coming off the picks, he isn’t really going anywhere and can waste valuable time doing just that. He wants to create, the Blazers need him to create, but as exciting as some sections of his work can be, the painting as a whole still winds up being a bit of a mess, despite the complete lack of turnovers.

• Casey Holdahl checks in with Nicolas Batum after missing a huge three.  

• Bust a Bucket takes the Zen approach:

It was all too fun to last, and just like every other NBA game ever, the team that was down big rallied. The Jazz started hitting shots.

• Kevin Pelton has five thoughts on last night’s game. He’s one more: Don’t blow a 25 point lead.

• Dwight Jaynes questions Nate McMillan’s rotation:

But at certain times this season I just shake my head. McMillan spent an NBA career as a bench player and he seems so overly concerned with his “second unit.” Man, it seems like a PE class out there some nights as he uses 10 players before the second quarter is over. Is he trying to make sure these guys get their varsity letter?

Are Jaynes’ criticisms fair? Is McMillan allowing his time as a bench player affect his rotation decisions? Is that a bad thing? Let us know in the comments below.

Blazers Give Up 25 Point Lead, Dignity to Jazz

After Utah went up five in overtime Juwan Howard spent the next two possessions with his head in his hands. And in one way or another, so did every other Trail Blazer player, coach and fan Sunday night, as the Utah Jazz overcame a 25 point deficit to come back and win in overtime, 93-89.

It was an astounding, heartbreaking defeat—a boot to the throat of Trail Blazer dignity. The kind after which everyone involved needs a stiff drink. Even coach McMillan, who usually keeps his feelings close to the chest, opened up a bit.

The wheels came off in the fourth quarter where Portland scored a season low 10 points on two of 17 (11%) shooting from the field, and just about everything was to blame: poor effort, missed shots, coasting on a big lead, turnovers, killer instinct, execution, and increased energy and effort from the Jazz.

Down two with the final shot, Deron Williams missed a decent look from 20 feet, but Carlos Boozer grabbed the rebound—his 21st of the game—and flipped it back in just before time expired. Boozer finished with 22 points, while setting new career highs in total rebounds (23) and offensive boards (eight).

And although Marcus Camby had a mostly terrific outing in his second game as a Blazer—he finished with 18 rebounds and four blocks—that final rebound he allowed Boozer to grab as regulation ended was the nail in the coffin. Sure, there was overtime and the Blazers technically had a chance, but it was clear that the Jazz, who came out flat, were finally engaged and in control.

Since January 9th Utah has been, by far, the hottest team in the. They’ve put together an NBA best record of 17-2 in that time, and their current seven-game road winning streak is their longest since 2001, when Stockton and Malone were still running Sloan’s pick and roll. It was the first time the Jazz have swept the season series from the Blazers since 2005-06.

Utah coach Jerry Sloan was jubilant after the gutsy victory, cracking jokes while asserting that, even when his team went down 25, he never gave up hope.

While some will point to Brandon Roy’s 23 points and say that perhaps he is able to play through the nagging hamstring injury I present the following: Roy had the Blazers worst +/- ratio by far, while he was on the court, the Jazz outscored Portland by 21. Roy was also responsible for five turnovers, uncommon for him in health. The hobbling star grabbed only one rebound, which may also be an indicator that he’s not able to mix things up physically.

The Blazers final chance came with :11 seconds in overtime. Roy caught the ball above the three point line, dribbled in a step or two, and jacked up a three with Deron Williams right in his face. Again, it didn’t seem especially Roy-like—it seemed like he settled.

During the second half Sunday Roy tried new in-game treatments to lessen the pain and keep loose his balky hamstring. He used heat packs and rode a stationary bike, which alleviated some tightening. That said, Roy admitted the pain at times was pretty serious (2:45):

Nicolas Batum broke out of his recent stretch of anonymity Sunday, scoring 14 points in the first half, and adding a number of highlight reel plays, including a stunning full-court run-down block of a cherry-picking Deron Williams, who surely didn’t see the lanky Frenchman coming.

While coach McMillan said afterwards that he considered starting Batum in the second half, the young small forward didn’t check in until just 1:07 remained in the third. By then Batum had cooled off. He would not score again, though his defense and rebounding remained persistent. Batum’s nine boards tied a career-high. After the game I asked him how it feels to have a hot first half only to find himself stuck on the bench:

Indeed, it’s a little frustrating. But nowhere near as frustrating as blowing a 25 point lead with 7:07 to play in the third quarter. And the crummy stats continue: the loss was the Blazers’ fourth in five games at the Rose Garden. Only one game separates Portland and New Orleans for the eighth playoff spot in the West.

Ugh. Now where’s that drink?

Blazers vs Jazz - Preview

Deron ain’t afraid of no Trail Blazer.Three games in one month is bad enough, but what about three losses? The Utah Jazz have absolutely owned the Blazers this season, and not just in the friendly confines of EnergySolutions Arena. Home, or away, the Jazz have beat Portland three times this year, with a 13 point average margin of victory. What Utah has done to Portland is humbling, and their total dominance of the Blazers must feel like sweet revenge for a team hoodwinked by the muscle-twirling villain Kevin Pritchard and his dastardly Paul Millsap “toxic offer.” After Portland hurt Utah in their wallets, the Jazz returned the favor and hurt the Blazers in the standings.

The Jazz were one of the first (post-injury) teams to really attack Portland in the paint and at the rim. Rarely settling for long jumpers, the Jazz bombarded the rim against the Blazers, poking the wound and making it abundantly clear that as long as Portland has no center, they will be exploited. During the 106-95 Utah victory on January 27th, I could swear the Jazz were just running layup drills against the Blazers’ hapless defense. Stop this madness, Marcus Camby. We’ll call a mulligan on your opening game as long as you stop Kyle Korver (of all people) from making the Blazers look soft. Deron Williams, on the other hand, cannot be stopped. Over the past five games Williams has dished (at least) 10 assists per game, a streak that is tops in the NBA (beating out such pass-friendly names like Nash and Paul). 

If the Blazers have any chance at redemption, it will come in the first dozen minutes of this game. Utah is not a last-second comeback team (sorry, Sundiata Gaines). They establish themselves early, dig in their heels, and manage the scoreboard as time slowly expires. This season the Jazz have averaged 33 points in the opening quarter against the Blazers—hang your head in shame, Portland defense. With an early lead safely secured, the Jazz just roll from there. This makes sense when you consider that Utah has won 29 straight when they lead at the end of the third quarter, the longest such streak in the league.

You hate to think a game can be decided in the first few minutes that follows the tip, but if Portland comes out flatter than Andre Miller’s jumpshot you might as well just hand over a season sweep to the Jazz. Because up until this point, they’ve earned it.

Injury & Celtics Confound Blazers

“Roy doesn’t look right,” said one.

“I know,” barked the other. “He was limping!”

Indeed it doesn’t take an expert to see that Brandon Roy is hurt—the preceding conversation took place somewhat drunkenly in the men’s bathroom. But that conversation was replicated everywhere Friday. From chat rooms to press row, everyone was asking: Roy doesn’t look right, so why is he playing?

The sentiment even popped up in the Celtics locker room. Unprompted, Kevin Garnett added “Brandon looks hurt—I’m just being honest,” (:23) to a question about Marcus Camby.

Video removed after 72 hours in accordance with NBA policy

Despite the prevailing sense that something is wrong enough with the Blazers star that he should be sitting out, the experts—team doctors, coaching staff, GM Kevin Pritchard and Roy himself—seeming to think it’s just fine that Roy sees extended minutes (34) like he did Friday.

After Roy’s somewhat emotional response Tuesday the Blazers company line has apparently been cleaned up—no longer is anything “in jeopardy.” Now it will “take time for Brandon took get his rhythm back,” or so they all said. Roy used the same words as coach McMillan did in his post-game press conference, which was almost eery.

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So Roy pushed the message and added some gloss: despite the nagging hamstring injury, which leaves him without some explosive, athletic moves, he believes he can be just as good as he was before. Here’s that conversation:

Video removed after 72 hours in accordance with NBA policy

I mean to cast no dispersion on Roy—I admire his will and desire to plow through the pain in hopes of helping his teammates. But this is a player who is still somewhat young, and as far as his playing career is concerned, even including college, this is the longest an injury has ever kept him out. These are uncharted waters.

As it appears now, if Roy is able to play even close to his pre-injury potential the Blazers move from an eight seed to a five or six. Either way, the Blazers are staring down the barrel of another first round playoff exit. If that’s all the upside, why risk it just for nine points and one assist?

Even if the Blazers had themselves a healthy Roy on Friday, they still would’ve had a really rough time against the Celtics. The veteran laden team looked every bit like the title contender they claim to be, dismantling the Blazers 97-76 in a game that was no closer than the score suggests.

Defensively, the Celtics were top notch. They held the Blazers to a pitiful 33.8% shooting from the field, and kept the clamps tight on every individual Portland player. The Blazers found themselves down 32-25 to begin the second quarter. And then things got really bad.

LaMarcus Aldridge was the only Blazer player to score a field goal in a brutal second quarter—it didn’t come until 5:17 remained in the half. During that stretch the Blazers turned the ball over four times, of which Marcus Camby was responsible for three, mostly bad outlet passes in the back court.

Overall, Boston dished out 27 assists to the Blazers seven. Thirty of Portland’s points came from the line (out of 40 attempts). They made just 22 field goals.

The Blazers’ futility continued from behind the arc, where they made just two of 12 attempts. And while credit must given the Celtics defense, Portland had a number of open looks. Martell Webster was one of the culprits. In another disappearing act, he made just one of four attempts from three point land (in junk time). He finished with four points, one rebound and two assists.

A game after scoring 15 against the Clippers, Rudy Fernandez seemed to fall back into a slump that’s dogged him for weeks. He had just five points and missed all four of his three point attempts. In one stretch he was called for back-to-back offensive fouls that would’ve otherwise resulted in and-one’s while firing up the crowd. But the calls were clear, and Rudy was in the wrong.

Andre Miller led the Blazers with 16 points, half of which came from the line, but handed out only two assists. LaMarcus Aldridge was again relatively steady. He finished with fifteen points and nine rebounds.

Marcus Camby’s first game in a Blazer uniform looked like it. He had just two points, seven rebounds and five turnovers. Coach McMillan replaced Camby with Juwan Howard to start the second half so that he could run more plays. Certainly, Camby has a lot left to learn.

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And for that matter, so do the rest of us. Either we—the great unwashed, graduates of Hollywood Upstairs Medical College—need to learn that letting Roy play while he’s injured is not a risk; that he’ll be greatly effective, and that the potential payoff is worthwhile. Or the experts—Blazer coaches, doctors, brass and Roy himself—will finally ask themselves what exactly they hope to gain from pushing their luck in the midst of a season that has been unrelentingly devastating with regard to injuries.