Eighth Seed No More?

For awhile, it was a given: If—and that was a tentative “if,” one that precariously dangled from Brandon Roy’s mangled hamstring—Portland limped into the playoffs, it would be as an 8th seed with a dance card filled by the World Champion Los Angeles Lakers. Portland would put on their best face, say it was a moral victory given their string of injuries, and then watch as Kobe Bryant dismantled the team in four games. Okay, fine, five games.

But now with a four game cushion between their eighth seed position and a night at the draft lottery, the Blazers could actually—gasp—move up in the playoff standings. One look at Portland’s schedule shows five of their next seven games against teams with losing records, and one of their two meetings with winning teams is a matchup at home against a Toronto team they had little trouble dispatching last week (albeit, without Chris Bosh). After that, the Blazers’ schedule takes a turn for the worse—Dallas and OKC twice each, a road game against the Lakers, plus a trip to visit a healthy Chris Paul in New Orleans—meaning that if Portland wants a chance to play any team but Los Angeles in the first round of the playoffs, they need to do make their move in the next two weeks.

Memphis Swingset

My God, what a swing.

Portland’s 41 point third quarter—which equaled their first-half output—was their highest scoring quarter of the season. The blistering run turned a 12 point deficit into a 12 point Blazers’ lead.

Emotionally it was quite a turnaround as well. Considering the quality of opponents, had the Blazers fallen to 3-2 on this, the final stop on a five game trip, it would’ve qualified as a failure. And when the Blazers entered the locker room at half time, a loss looked exactly like they where they were headed. Instead, the team exploded offensively behind Brandon Roy and Nic Batum, who hit a combined nine of 11 shots from the field in the quarter.

But as this season has taught us, things are rarely simple for the Blazers—and there would, of course, be another swing.

Up 13 with 9:50 to play in the game’s final quarter, Memphis went on a 15 to 4 run, trimming the Blazers lead to just two points with 3:25 to go. As it has been wont to do lately, the Blazers offense seized. They played to keep the lead, rather than playing freely. The ball stopped. Brandon Roy became isolated as other players stood still and watched. And unlike his former, pre-injury self (or last season’s vintage model) Roy failed on a number of possessions to score. He missed inside and complained about fouls—it seemed unlike the Roy we’ve come to expect, and again makes this writer wonder just how well he truly is. With the Utah’s comeback still fresh in mind—not to mention lead-closing runs by the Nets, Toronto and Chicago on this trip—it was nail-biting time.

Finally, with 2:38 remaining Roy made a scoop shot in the lane. On the next play former Blazer Zach Randolph scored and was fouled. He converted the three-point play and the Blazer lead was down to a single point.

But Portland’s offense began to stick, as Roy drove into the lane the Grizzlies defense collapsed, but streaking in from the wing came Nicolas Batum. Roy dumped him the ball. And one.

After a stop, Roy again isolated, drove for a seven-foot jumper that rimmed out, but a sailing Marcus Camby tipped in the miss. The Blazers found their breathing room, but only for a moment—a bad pass out of a timeout that was stolen by O.J. Mayo in the backcourt would have cut the Blazer lead to a single possession had it not been for a phenomenal block by Batum. The Blazers recovered the loose ball and never looked back.

And finally, after two breathtaking swings—one beautiful, the other frightening—the Blazers prevailed in their trip, the longest of the season, with a record of 4-1.

It’s worth noting that before Nicolas Batum’s 31 point eruption at Minnesota his career high was 21, which he matched Monday. Batum hit four of seven attempts from three (including one in the waning seconds of garbage time).

Roy led all scorers with 25, shooting seven of 18 from the field. Andre Miller finished with another double-double, adding 12 points and 11 assists. Over the five-game trip, Miller dished out 39 assists while giving away a scant seven turnovers.

Zach Randolph had a team-high 22 points, but was held to just seven boards, below his season average of 11.9.

NOTES

• This is the first time Portland has scored over 100 points in five consecutive games since 1997-‘98, when the team—lead by Kenny Anderson—did it six straight times (2/4-2/17).

• Martell Webster was again a non-factor. He played just six minutes, registering a single blocked shot and three points.

• Monday’s win put the Blazers four games ahead of 9th place Houston. Portland’s 17-14 record on the road is fourth best in the Western Conference.

Meet Your Newest Blazer: Travis Diener

Yahoo! Sports’ Adrian Wojnarowski is reporting that the empty chair to the left of Patty Mills—the Portland Trail Blazers’ 15th roster spot—is about to be filled by Travis Diener.

I’ll give you all a second to Google him.

You’re right, he is a former Marquette player, formerly drafted by the Orlando Magic, who has scored all of three points this year for the Indiana Pacers. But what do you really know about Travis Diener? That’s why we asked Tim Donahue of the excellent Pacers’ blog 8 points, 9 Seconds for the full scoop.

Travis is arguably the perfect third point guard. Believe it or not, he’s got excellent handles, among the best in the league in my opinion. He’s a good passer, and does a good job of running the offense. He is the type of guy who won’t hurt you with turnovers or dumb mistakes. 

But…

He won’t hurt the other team either. He’s a streaky shooter, at best. He has “too many moving parts” in his shot to be really consistent, particularly from long range. If he gets hot, great, but I wouldn’t count on it. Worse, 511 of the 615 shots he took during his Pacers tenure came from outside of 15 feet. He is very reluctant to try to finish at the rim, often getting into the teeth of the defense, even to the rim, then either dribbling back out or dumping it out to a perimeter player. This is demonstrate by the fact that he only took 52 shots at the rim, and he only had 7 shots blocked in his almost three years in Indy.

Further evidence of his tendency to be over-conservative is his 5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Outside of the occasional quick three, he almost never does anything other than the safe play. Last year, when both he and Jarrett Jack were playing for the Pacers, many called for him to play at the point, because he was less error-prone and had more traditional point guard skills. These things, as we know, are true, but it’s primarily because, temperamentally, he’s the polar opposite of Jack. Jarrett was always trying to make something happen, and when he figured out how to work that within Jim O’Brien’s offense (and now, apparenty, in Toronto), lots of good stuff happened at the price of the occasional cringe-worthy play. Travis never pushes the envelope and is more concerned about not making a mistake. 

In a situation like Portland’s, that will be fine. Also, in short minutes (I wouldn’t use him for more than 15 minutes a night), that particular attribute never really hurts you. However, when forced to play longer minutes in Indiana, the defenses became content to let the ball remain in his hands. Though he has the handles and passing skill to be a playmaker, he lacks the temperament, and he never forces the defense out of it’s comfort zone. Unless he has one of his 3-point binges (meaning he hits two or three in a row), he’s not a threat offensively.

Defensively, he’s willing, but somewhat slow-footed and very weak physically. He doesn’t create turnovers, either with his hands or in passing lanes. He’s smart, and he’ll minimize mistakes, but he’s exploitable.

Lastly, he has a really hot girlfriend/wife and a gawdawful beard.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• I’m sure you’ve heard that Portland will sign Travis Diener to the 15th roster spot once he clears waivers. The Invisible Ninja is breaking down Diener’s stats this very moment on twitter.

• The current five game road trip ends tonight in Memphis, Tennessee at the FedEx Forum. Memphis is also home to the St. Jude’s Children’s Research Hospital  and you’ll be hearing a lot about St. Jude’s from the likes of Mike Barrett and The Oregonian among others. I lived in Tennessee for six years myself and I can tell you that St. Jude’s is one of the most worthy causes I know of and who I give my charity money to. St. Jude is the patron saint of lost causes; let that settle in for a minute. These children are often the sickest of the sick and their families are often poor, but patients accepted for treatment at St. Jude are treated without regard to the family’s ability to pay. Money sent to St. Jude is money that you know is going to help save lives.

• TrueHoop Network sister blog 3 Shades of Blue has the Memphis breakdown of tonight’s game, and Chip Crain calls Andre Miller a disappointment. In all fairness, Chip calls Mike Conley a disappointment too.

• Speaking of Conley, Wendell Maxey reports that Conley’s name sure does come up in trade rumors a lot.

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of  The Oregonian thinks that the key to stopping the Grizzlies is stopping Zach Randolph, which is apparently more difficult now that Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol have stepped away from the fudge.

• J.E. Skeets, Tas Melas and The Basketball Jones have jumped ship over to The Score. Trey Kerby has some  very Canadian shoes to fill.

• The Columbian’s Brain T. Smith interviews Dante Cunningham in all his onomatopoeic glory.

 “Shoom, shoom, shoom, shoom, shoom.”

•TrueHoop Network sister blog NBA Playbook has a great article on defending the post. LaMarcus Aldridge may want to give it a quick skim before tipoff.

• Neil Paine talks about the basketball talent pool.

• The Invisible Ninja made some pretty new charts that track individual player statistics. If you like to play with stats, this is a good place to spend a few hours days.

• Wired.com has a very interesting article on something called Compressed Sensing, an algorithm that can take an incomplete data set and extrapolate to a clearer picture. Now, I was a political science major, not a math major. However, I wonder if a data set concerning basketball were rendered in a visual format, if this algorithm could somehow be used to make predictions of some sort. If you have any insight into this sort of thing, please let us know what you think in the comments below.

Blazers vs Grizzlies - Preview

Even more confusing than this photo of Allen Iverson in a Memphis home jersey (he played zero games for them inside FedEx Forum) is the fact that the Grizzlies are now playoff contenders, gnawing away at Portland’s 3.5 game advantage in the standings. Credit Marc Gasol anchoring the team in the paint, the pudgy offensive prowess of a reformed Zach Randolph, and a motivated Rudy Gay playing in a contract year. No longer are the Grizzles an NBA punchline; the bottom-dwelling team that failed to corral A.I., and shipped away Pau Gasol for a copy of Phil Jackson’s Sacred Hoops: Spiritual Lessons of a Hardwood Warrior and a gameworn Sasha Vujacic headband.

The Grizzlies are good.

But I don’t have to tell you that. You probably watched—through covered eyes—the horror of Memphis taking a pair of games inside the Rose Garden earlier this year. There is a lot at stake here since Portland hasn’t dropped a season series to Memphis since the Blazers’ 21-win 2005-06 team, and losing this—or any—tiebreaker in a gridlocked Western Conference playoff race is not a good idea. Thankfully the Blazers have won the last seven games in Memphis, while the Grizzlies—mere weeks after winning 11 straight at home—have dropped an uncharacteristic six consecutive games in a row inside the FedEx Forum.

A Portland victory would seriously doom the playoff chances of this streaky Memphis team. But a loss would hand over a potential tiebreaker to a franchise eyeing that ever-elusive eighth playoff seed. Let’s see if this Memphis cold streak lasts one more night…

Tip-off: 5pm
TV: Comcast
Las Vegas Line: Memphis -1

Let's Play Doctor

It’s still just a tad early—thanks to a schedule that went from really difficult to consistently easy in the last three weeks—to say concretely what’s happening to Martell Webster’s frazzled nerves. Still, I wonder if Webster’s confidence has been stripped naked then dunked on by Nic Batum, who stole his job in the starting lineup, or if Webster is just suffering through another one of his characteristic slumps. And while we can’t say anything for sure yet, rest assured—another week or two and a few interviews should seal it up.

In the meantime, place your bets. Put ‘em down so you can collect bragging rights* when it all shakes out:

* Bonus points for placing the movie reference in the poll. All the Marbles for anyone who can repeat the original joke in full.

The Night Batum Went to Minnesota a Boy, and Came Back a Man

There are two people that benefitted from the Portland Trail Blazers’ 110-91 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves: Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster’s therapist. While Frenchy 88 was putting up career numbers in nearly every single category (31 points, 7 assists, dunking on Ryan Gomes), Webster saw his future as a Blazers starter disappear into the ether. The writing was on the wall last season, but injuries left things unclear. Now that we have witnessed a healthy Batum versus a healthy Webster, we have our answer. (Spoiler alert: It’s Batum.)

The win was the first for Marcus Camby as a Blazer (since he spent most of the New Jersey game in an MRI machine, that doesn’t count), and marks a dozen consecutive Blazer wins against the T-Wolves, plus their third straight sweep of the season series as well. This streak is the franchise’s longest against any team, dating back to a 15 game run against the 1993-96 Wolves. Basically, the Blazers are the worst thing to happen to Minnesota since Brett Favre in the fourth quarter of a playoff game.

It’s hard to focus on any other individual performance when mild-mannered Batum went all Batumshakalaka in the third quarter, dropping 22 points in that quarter alone. Compare that to the measly 10 points that the Wolves scored the previous quarter, and you can tell what kind of game this was. For Portland, few things make the team go from 98 pound weakling to Charles Atlas (all my references can be traced to ads in the back of comic books) than a meeting with the Wolves. With their self-esteem on the mend, all that remains for Portland on this road trip is a pivotal game in Memphis.

Now that is one sentence I never thought I’d type.

Blazers VS Timberwolves - Preview

If the NBA were contracted and the Timberwolves dissolved would anyone care? It might actually be a relief for the people of Minnesota, who would be spared cajoling a perennial loser more dependable than the Chicago Cubs, and also to be spared the task of putting David Kahn’s head on a stick outside the Target Center (and we thought Kevin McHale was bad). The most disturbing aspect of Kahn’s incompetence—worse than pissing away the number five pick on Rubio or reportedly offering Al Jefferson for Danny Granger—is the bad name he’s giving writers-turned-general-managers. Without a doubt he’s crushed my (or Bill Simmons) chances of doing ANYTHING other than covering a team.

So yes, pretty disappointing overtime loss in Chicago last night. During the post-game report, radio announcer Antonio Harvey actually got something right—hard to believe, I know. On the Blazers’ current five-game road trip, Tone said that, in the midst of the playoff chase, anything less than a four and one record would be disappointing. And considering the caliber of opponents, Memphis being far and away the highest, four and one seemed doable. Actually, five and ‘0’ did too. But that dream is now dead.

It didn’t take long, however, for Tone to slip off truth’s tightrope (or at least thoughtful’s thoroughfare). Quickly he began to worry about the Blazers’ energy and emotional state after falling in OT. Wheels quickly butted in to remind his clueless partner that the Blazers are an NBA best 11 and three on the second night of back-to-backs. I’ll do Wheels one better—Saturday’s game will be the Wolves’ second in as many days as well. They were clubbed in Oklahoma City Friday, 109-92—Minnesota’s eighth loss in nine games. I guess Darko wasn’t the answer.

But then again, in Minnesota, what will the answer be? Or, more appropriately, will there every be one? The answer, as any high school dropout can tell you is NO—the Wolves will never be relevant. Kevin Garnett was as close they will ever come, and we know how that ended—fear he would snap into a murderous rampage. And my God, if Kevin Garnett couldn’t do it, how will Kevin Love? The Great White Beavertonite has man boobs—he’s not fit to carry Garnett’s jock, much less a doomed franchise.

It says a lot about the Northwest Division that it can be considered the toughest in the NBA despite housing a 14-46 Wolves team. So chalk up a Blazers win Saturday, which will complete the season sweep. The Blazers won the three previous meetings all by double-digits, and twice by more than 20.