The Pace of the Blazers

A common refrain among Portland Trail Blazer fans is that Portland should play at a faster tempo. Fans point to Rudy Fernandez, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller, and Nicolas Batum as pieces that might be better utilized in an up tempo offense. So why do the Blazers play so slowly?

The answer: Nate McMillan.

The signature of McMillan’s offense is a slow paced and offensively efficiency attack. With a quick check of Basketball-Reference you can see that last season Portland played at a snail’s pace of 86.6 possessions per game, while posting a league leading 113.9 points per 100 possessions. The result of this slow, but efficient, attack was a winning streak of 44-consecutive games when Portland held their opponents to 90 points or less. 

The chart below confirms our observations. McMillan coached teams are generally slow paced and highly effective. Exceptions to high offensive efficiency being in 2003 when Ray Allen and Desmond Mason were injured (for the Sonics) and in 2006 when McMillan took over an abysmal Trail Blazers team (Note: to simplify things, I used the last number of the highest season year, e.g. the 2000-2001 season is simply “1”). In 2004, it looks like McMillan stepped up the pace, and he did, by nearly two possessions per game. However, the league that year played at the slowest pace of the decade, so even though that season the Sonics were 15th in pace, they really weren’t playing much faster than any McMillan team ever has. One thing that stands out is that as a team adopts McMillan’s offense, the offensive rating rises pretty steadily and the pace falls farther below the league average. 

Ryan J. Parker has done some excellent research on how a play ends based on how it started.  I highly recommend reading his entire article because it has lots of pretty charts and interesting info. Anyhow, take a look at this:

What the above chart (which Ryan J. Parker made and can be found on the page to which I linked) shows is the points scored per 100 shot events. Or in other words, this chart shows what happens when a team gets the ball and gets a shot off. If a team were to steal the ball and shoot a layup—hit or miss—it is counted here. If instead a team stole the ball and then threw it out of bounds, that possession would not show up because there was no shot attempted. The lines cutting through the plot points demonstrate the range in which the value of a given play fluctuates. For instance, a play that starts after a made two point shot has a pretty steady value, which makes sense because typically after a made shot from the field, the ball is inbounded and brought up the floor. In contrast, a play that starts with an offensive rebound has a lot of fluctuation because there is no set starting point. Some offensive rebounds bounce long or are tipped to a teammate, sometimes the offensive rebound results in a put-back dunk, or perhaps the ball gets tipped several times without going in, and sometimes the offensive rebounder gets fouled, etc.

Now, what should stand out is that steals and rebounds are particularly valuable. If you absolutely must give the ball up to the other team, it is vastly preferential that it be in a dead ball situation. Which makes sense because then the other team has to attack against a set defense. In contrast, steals and defensive rebounds can lead to outlet passes and high percentage fast break scores.

McMillan really values taking care of the ball. The Oregonian’s Jason Quick had this quote from Andre Miller:

“Every team worries about turnovers, but this team stresses it more than other teams,” Miller said. “So I’ve tried to put an emphasis on that, making simple passes and not a lot of high-risk passes like I normally do.”

So why so slow?

My guess is because of McMillan’s strong emphasis on taking care of the ball, the team as a whole tends to play slower and tries to make the safe pass rather than the homerun—or highlight, or rushed—pass. In addition to a positive effect on offensive efficiency, the Blazers low turnover rate also boosts Portland’s defensive efficiency. By not turning the ball over, Portland is maximizing the value of each offensive possession and limiting easy buckets on defense. Therefore, love it or hate it, don’t expect the Blazers to play faster unless the turnovers stay down.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related. 

• Wendell Maxey asks, is Portland’s season already a success? Can we answer that? We can? Yes, yes it is.

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of The Oregonian takes a look at how Marcus Camby is adapting to his new team:

“I still think it’s early. He’s been here what, two weeks? He’s trying to find his way,” McMillan said. “We’re trying to advise him of what we do here and take advantage of what he does.”

• Also at The Oregonian, Joe Freeman says the Blazers might be shifting into a higher gear as the playoffs approach:

“I feel like we’re playing great right now,” LaMarcus Aldridge said. “With everything that’s happened to us this year, I feel like we’re finally figuring it out and we’re finally doing it out on the court. Everything’s starting to come together.”

I think that Portland will continue to be a team that starts a bit slow and heats up going into the playoffs for the foreseeable future. So far, it seems that Brandon Roy and Aldridge sluggishly begin the season then gradually pick up steam after the All-Star break. Also, the Blazers will have to re-integrate Greg Oden and (possibly) Przybilla into the lineup next year, plus Jerryd Bayless may get more court time as well. In 2011-2012 , Portland holds a team option on Andre Miller’s contract. Miller will be 35 at the start of that season and the Blazers may promote Bayless to starting point guard or go in another direction (Travis Diener—just kidding) as yet unforeseen.

• Speaking of heating up as the season comes to a close, Greg Oden is working hard and wants to play in the playoffs if possible. My prediction is that he will be on the playoff roster as a front office nod to his efforts, but that he will not play barring a miraculous recovery.

• Brian T. Smith of The Columbian has a great interview with Jerryd Bayless. Plus, here is the interview with Andre Miller and coaches McMillan and Demopolous and the actual transcript of Bayless’ interview. I really like that Smith provided the source material as well as the narrative, it helps prevent misunderstandings.

• On the eve of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference ,  Kevin Pelton looks at the state of basketball statistics as a whole and Kevin Arnovits of the TrueHoop “Motherblog” talks about how APBRmetrics are spilling over into his daily life. I imagine that after a while it will look something like this.

• One of the rising stars mentioned in Pelton’s piece, Tom Haberstroh takes a look at protecting the rim.

• Is Rudy Fernandez’s back injury slowing him down? Look how glacially he moves, he can barely get past his defender, it’s like he’s in slow motion…

• Dave over at BlazersEdge answers some mail.

• Charles Barkley is just Precious.

Island of Misfit Blazers Toys: Dante CunningJAM Jersey

Oh no you didn’t. You did not just drop $60-plus dollars to make a customized jersey dedicated to a second round rookie that only averages a dozen minutes a game. 

Well, he did. PRS reader Cory—the very same man that had a “Stud Ruffin” jersey made in honor of Michael Ruffin—made a better investment this time around, seeing as Dante Cunningham Cunningjam will probably be (jamming) in a Blazers uniform for many years to come. Well played, sir.

Update:
The jersey’s owner has this to add: “I would be more than willing to allow Dante to jam on me wearing this jersey, if that’s somehow possible…” You hear that Blazers’ HQ? I think we just came up with your new marketing campaign.

Pick and Scroll

 Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Mike Barrett on the futility of the Pacers not named Granger:

If you would have told me before the game that Danny Granger would end with 30 points, and Portland would shoot just 43 percent, I would have been concerned. But, neither of those numbers really played into anything in this one. It was too much Brandon and LaMarcus, and solid play out of the second unit that gave Portland this easy win.

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of The Oregonian reports that Juwan Howard now leads the league in headlocks flagrant fouls:

“I just don’t want to give up layups. I’m from the old school. We don’t give up layups,” Howard said. “When I first came into the league, that’s how I was introduced to the game. Guys would foul me hard. Sure enough, you had to go back on the other end and reciprocate that.”

• Along that vein, Joel Przybilla got a couple votes for “dirtiest player.” Apparently, Tyson Chandler and Shaq got to stuff the ballot box.

• Standing in for Joel as the Blazer-you-don’t-punk is Jeff Pendergraph. Wendell Maxey has the down low on Pendergraph’s altercation with Roy Hibbert:

“I met him at halfcourt and told him to hit me again and he started laughing. He thought that (stuff) was funny. I told him to hit me again. He said, ‘let’s do it then’. But as soon as I heard a whistle, I backed up.”

• Basketbawful has a great picture from last night’s game. Make sure to catch the expressions on the faces of the Blazer coaching staff.

• Dwight Jaynes thinks we should raise expectations again. I’m pretty sure Jaynes just wants to raise expectations so he can rail against McMillan for not getting the job done. Regardless, I’d like to point out that having a healthy Greg Oden and a health Joel Przybilla is quite a bit better than having Marcus Camby.

• Check TrueHoop Network sister blog Eight Points, Nine Seconds for the Indy side of the story. Now typically, here is where I would make a joke about Indiana Jones and Pendergraph’s reptilian nickname and the whole “Snakes. Why’d it have to be snakes?” thing. But you know what? No, I won’t do it. At some point a writer has to have some journalistic integrity and stand up and refuse to promulgate a terrible nickname.

• Ooooh! HoopData has more pretty charts! This one has team stats like Dean Oliver’s Four Factors and Pace.

• Kevin Pelton does a fantastic job of breaking down the summer of 2010, answering questions about the value of cap space or a chance at a top draft pick.

• Of course Kevin McHale has a few cautionary words about cap space. That’s right folks, Kevin McHale doling out advice to other GM’s. Has a pot ever been so black?

• Jerryd Bayless wants you to stand up and be counted. Remember, the more people that respond to the census, the bigger a slice of the four trillion dollar pie Oregon gets.

Doin' Work, Blazers Drop Pacers 102-79

“It’s like watching the market,” said Nate McMillan of the standings in the Western Conference Playoff race. “It goes up and down, and you can go crazy with that.” As such, he takes a different approach.

“Our focus is on us,” explained McMillan. “We’re in the driver’s seat. Regardless of what (other teams) do, if we focus on our business we’re going to be OK.” And Wednesday, the Trail Blazers did exactly that. They refused to look past the lowly Pacers, and in their first game home after the longest road trip of the season, the Blazers kept focus. In fact, it looked like Portland brought back some of that confidence and will they found on the five-game eastern swing.

Which is not to say they needed anything special to club the Pacers, one of the worst teams in the league. What matters, however, is that Portland did it in convincing fashion. After taking a double-digit lead in the second quarter the Blazers inflated it most of the way before winning 102-79.

It’s often said that the first game back from a long trip can be troublesome, that it can feel like another on the road. Certainly it was on the minds of the Blazers coaches and players. (After Saturday’s win in Minnesota, the first thing Brandon Roy talked about in the postgame was focusing on Monday to avoid the let-down.) Coach McMillan was proud of the way his team dominated what can sometimes be a difficult situation:

The mood in the Blazer locker room was jovial as ever and it should’ve been, considering how thoroughly they decimated their inferior opponents. The Blazers won every statistical category except field goal percentage (Indiana shot 43.4% to the Blazers 43.2%, but that gap was turned only in junk time).

And although they’ve done it against mostly meager defensive competition, the Blazers offense is operating at it’s highest clip in years. Portland have scored 100-plus points in each of their last six games, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since February 4-17, 1998.

Now the Blazers get their break. It’s one they’ve certainly earned, having won five of their last six games overall and four of five on the road. They don’t play again until Sunday at Denver. Every Blazer player mentioned how happy he was for the break, and how helpful it would be:

Brandon Roy led the Blazers with 22, although it took him a good number of tries (he hit six of 16 attempts) and free throws (10 of 11) to get there. Despite the team’s success, he still doesn’t look quite right or injury free. He did not speak to the media.

In his last eight games Roy’s backup Rudy Fernandez has alternated between double and single digits in each contest. He’ll have a fine outing, followed by a ugly one. And after five points at Memphis, he again bounced back scoring 16 on five of 10 from behind the arc. And while the inconsistency is somewhat troubling, Fernandez has at least made progress from a horrid stint in early February that included three games for a total of seven points, five fouls and five turnovers. In the final game of that stretch coach McMillan held Fernandez to a season low seven minutes, which likely led to his venting in the Spanish newspaper Marca. I asked Fernandez how he deals with, and breaks, slumps, as he seemed to do tonight (I only just now noticed the every other game fluctuation and will pursue it later in the week at practice):

Aside from renewed confidence, the road trip helped fostered something else: Marcus Camby’s becoming better ingrained with the team. He talked about how establishing personal relationships matters on the court:

Danny Granger had a game-high 30 points. He was the only Pacer in double figures, and at half-time, accounted for more than half the team’s total score.

Wednesday’s win, coupled with losses by New Orleans and Houston made the Blazers playoff lead a bit cushier. Portland are now three games ahead of Houston and Memphis, and four better than New Orleans. They are a few percentage points out of the 7th seed, one game out of the 6th.

So the pieces are in place. And just like coach McMillan said, all they have to do is take care of business.

NOTES:

- Portland are 10 games over .500 for the first time this year.

Pick and Scroll

 Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of The Oregonian asks if McMillan finally has a starting lineup in place for the remainder of the season.

• Well, if McMillan has settled on a starting lineup, his next coaching challenge, according to SJ from Rip City Project is figuring out what’s up with Webster. SJ takes a great look at Webster’s numbers based on starts, coming off the bench, and minutes played. Ben from BlazersEdge did a similar analysis not long ago and came to some of the same conclusions Rip City Project has. Recently, Webster has been producing even less—according to SJ in the link above—in the seven games since dropping 28 on the Clippers, Webster has totaled 23 points and has only made seven field goals total.

• The fall of Webster has coincided with the rise of Nicolas Batum, as reported by a “fervent” Sophia Brugato.

• Mike Barrett agrees, albeit in a more subdued manner:

Batum has only played in 18 games this season, but is now averaging 10 points and 4 rebounds per game. He’s shooting 57 percent overall, including 46 percent from three, and 91 percent from the line. He’s been the difference for the Blazers in close games lately. Not bad for a guy who just turned 21 in December.

I’m going to make my BOLD PREDICTION of the month and say that if Webster does not figure out how to be productive off the bench in the last few games of the season (and in the playoffs), he will be moved on draft night and Portland will go after a wing player. Portland could look for the next Dante Cunningham, a steady young role-player who can produce in limited minutes, or go after a free agent like Roger Mason Jr., or our dearly departed Travis Outlaw.

• Do you use iamatrailblazersfan.com? Vote for it to win the SXSW people’s choice award. Speaking of SXSW, 1/3 of this blog’s staff will be in Austin that week. Breakfast tacos will be consumed.

• Speaking of iamatrailblazersfan, Casey Holdahl has the highlights from Monday’s victory in Memphis.

• Sean Meagher of The Oregonian has this quick note about Andre Miller, the Road Warrior:

Over the five-game stint, Miller dished out 39 assists and committed just six turnovers. That’s a ridiculous 6:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, to go along with his 14 points and four rebounds per game. Miller also had eight steals during the trip (nearly two per game). So not only is he exceptional at giving, he’s also pretty good at taking.

• You’ve already read our preview  of tonight’s contest against Travis Diener’s old team right? This game needs to be viewed as a revenge game on behalf or Portland’s newest Blazer, if for nothing else then so we at PRS can use the headline “Winning, it’s what’s for Diener.”

• Be sure to check out the Indiana perspective at TrueHoop Network sister blog Eight-Points-Nine-Seconds, the kind people who gave us the lowdown on Steve Blake in beta mode The Blazers’ newest acquisition.

Blazers vs. Pacers - Preview

 Looking good, boys!

Let the Travis “Franchise” Diener era begin! The former Indiana Pacer makes his Blazers debut tonight… that is only if Portland win/loses by 40 and Patty Mills rolls an ankle. The Blazers keep with their tradition of only picking up players from teams that are passing through town—Paul Allen shares his airline bonus mileage points with no man—as Diener’s old team makes their lone Portland appearance of the season.

Despite having a wealth of young players, and the single greatest D-League mascot ever, the Indiana Pacers have not had a winning record since Reggie Miller traded his pinstripes for a TNT microphone after the 2004-05 season. Following some fisticuffs in Auburn Hills and an unfortunate equation of gun + strip club parking lot, the Pacers had to scorch the earth—goodbye Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, Anthony Johnson, Jamaal Tinsley, Marquis Daniels, and Jermaine O’Neal—and start anew. This process, as any Portland fan knows, is not an easy or quick. As GM Larry Bird puts it, “We lack a little bit of everything.” 

The Hick from French Lick is not kidding. The Pacers have a handful of solid players but more than a few glaring gaps at nearly every position, which might explain why they are permanently submerged in the rebuilding process. The Blazers rolled over the Pacers inside the Ozzie Conseco Fieldhouse (I can’t believe they named their arena after Jose’s twin brother) back on December 9th when Portland only had nine active players and Nate McMillan was back home nursing his achilles (ah, memories). Indiana has seven road wins on the year (comparison: Portland got road win number seven back on December 20th) and are in the second game of a back-to-back after falling to the Lakers by 23 points. Now that Portland is closer to the 4th seed than they are the 9th seed, this is the sort of game they should win. With ease.

Tip-off: 7pm
TV: Comcast
Las Vegas Line: Portland -8.5
TrueHoop Network Blog: 8 Points, 9 Seconds

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• It occurred to me today that the Grizzlies, at various points, have had Darko Milicic (2nd over all pick), Kwame Brown (1st over all pick),  and Hasheem Thabeet (2nd over all pick) on their roster. Man, Memphis has had tough luck with centers drafted in the top two picks (Pau Gasol  was drafted 3rd).

• TrueHoop Network sister blog 3 Shades of Blue is not happy with how the game was refereed. Personally, I didn’t notice too much unbalance. I thought that Roy and Bayless could not buy a call; I thought that several fouls were turned into no-calls, and that Zach Randolph was allowed to get away with a lot. Of course, there may be other factors influencing both of our perspectives, but in my opinion, it’s awfully brash to say that a game was called unfairly against the team that attempted six more free-throws. 

• Kelly Dwyer of Ball Don’t Lie credits the Blazers with forcing turnovers and thinks that McMillan out to be in consideration for some hardware:

21 turnovers for the Grizz, and I credit Portland for a good portion of that. A miscue on over 22 percent of the team’s possessions (I won’t tell you how much over), and you just can’t do that in the face of a sneaky-great offensive team like the Trail Blazers.

There are probably eight or nine coaches that “should” win the Coach of the Year award, but boy is Nate McMillan doing some fantastic work with his Blazers.

• Geoff Calkins of the Memphis Commercial Appeal takes a hard look at ping pong balls in the Grizzlies future:

The Grizzlies didn’t officially clinch a spot in the lottery against Portland on Monday night, but it’s not because they didn’t try. They committed 21 turnovers. They gave up as many points in the third quarter (41) as they did the entire first half. 

• Dave over at BlazersEdge takes a look at the point guards Portland have recently played, several of whom the Blazers had rumored interest in at one time or another.

• Sheed from Bust-a-Bucket recaps the game with Roy as Superman, Nic Batum as Mr. Fantastic. Now I don’t know if Matt Scheelar is a big enough geek to know that Superman is a DC character and Mr. Fantastic is a Marvel character and even in the crossover issues, I don’t think they’ve ever been “teammates.” However, the photoshop jobs are very nice.

• Jason Quick from The Oregonian has exhibit A for why Batum is starting over Martell Webster. If you will recall, on January 5, 2008 Martell had a 24 point quarter against the Utah Jazz. However:

 Batum scored 22 points in the third quarter, and had two chances to tie Terry Porter’s franchise record for points in the quarter (25), but he missed two three-pointers in the final 40 seconds.

 “And no call for me … no plays for me,” Batum beamed. “I just played my game. I didn’t do anything special. Just take the open shot, make cuts to basket, get rebounds. That’s it.”

Batum nearly equaled Webster’s one-quarter scoring record and did it without plays being called for him. Now, yes Batum went nuts on the Timberwolves, not the Jazz, however, I would argue that Batum’s production is more sustainable. Now I don’t think that we will see Batum score 20+ on a regular basis, but I’d say that we are likely to see consistent production in the flow of the offense with the occasional huge game, as opposed to Webster who can have high scoring games when he is the focus of the offense, but can tend to disappear in games where he doesn’t have his shot going.  

• Exhibit B: Nicolas Batum is currently the 5th best small forward in the league according to John Hollinger’s player efficiency rating. Disclaimer: Batum’s sample size is smaller at 18 games rather than the 40-plus games of the others in the top 10. Disclaimer to the disclaimer: Batum is putting up monster numbers fresh from coming off of shoulder surgery.

• Jason Quick also covers McMillan’s half-time tirade. While it was effective, isn’t it interesting that professional sports, and especially coaching, seems to be the one place is society where losing one’s temper, screaming, and kicking over a chair or bucket of ice is not only acceptable, but encouraged? I’m going to try that at the office today and I’ll let you know how it goes.

• NBA FanHouse’s Chris Tomasson has a great interview with Derek Fisher, president of the players union, regarding CBA negotiations. Fisher thinks that the owners need to take a hard look at other reasons that some franchises are not profitable before cutting player’s salaries.

• Pro Basketball Talk says that Denver is desperate to add a big man. While some people think that Camby is not a huge difference maker, I think we can all agree that it’s a good thing that Portland acquired Camby rather than the Nuggets.