Pick and Scroll, Uncertain edition.

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Mike Barrett says that Portland’s playoff opponent may be unknown until the final game of the regular season:

You would have thought that predicting who Portland will face in the first round of the playoffs would be a little easier with just five games remaining on the schedule. But it’s still true that we have no idea. After all, Dallas, Denver, Utah, and Phoenix are all 50-27. Portland sits a game and a-half ahead of Oklahoma City, and is just a half game behind San Antonio.

• Of course, over at the TrueHoop Motherblog, Henry Abbott thinks that all this uncertainty is just fantastic and should lead to some very intense games to close the season.

• While much is yet to be decided, we at PRS take a stab at breaking down who the Blazers do- and do not-want to face in the second season. *SPOILER* Portland wants Dallas.

• Over at BlazersEdge, Ben Golliver breaks down Greg Oden’s uncertain summer and possible free agency. With Pritchard’s job in question and a new CBA on the horizon, Oden should be in for an interesting summer indeed.

• Which reminds me, Coup over at Rip City Project gave his take on Oden’s future before the whole Penn/Pritchard fiasco. Speaking of Coup, he’s been watching film again and this time he covers Portland’s transition defense, or lack thereof, against Denver.

• Dime thinks Nate McMillan is COY. As in Coach of the Year, not shy.

• Dwight Jaynes thinks Travis Diener should get some of Jerryd Bayless’ minutes.

• Over at Bust A Bucket, Seth Johnson reminds us not to forget about Petteri Koponen.

• Marc Stein in this weekend’s ESPN Daily Dime reported that Nate McMillan may be feeling some heat: 

Nate McMillan is a top Coach of the Year contender in Portland, so I (like you) never expected him to figure into this conversation, but one coaching source said that McMillan’s staff has at times this season shared some of the same uneasiness about its job security that Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard has been subjected to lately in spite of Pritchard’s popularity with Portland fans.

Who Should the Blazers Face in the Playoffs?

Team: 
Los Angeles Lakers

Why the Blazers Want to Play the Lakers:
I can give you nine reasons, one for each time Kobe Bryant rolled into the Rose Garden and slinked away with a loss. While the Lakers broke their nine game streak in early February, that was a game where both Bryant and Brandon Roy sat out. Mr. Mamba has not won in Portland in over five years. (Common logic states that this is irrelevant since the Lakers wouldn’t need to win on the Blazers’ turf in order to escape the first round, but this is Blazers fan rational we are talking about here, logic does not apply.)

Plus, if Portland meets Los Angeles—instead of Utah or Dallas—the games will likely be broadcast on the network of Lost, instead the network of The Closer. For a team that longs for respect from a national audience, this can be the sort of motivation that throws a wrench in the Lakers’ plans for world domination.

Why the Blazers Do NOT Want to Play the Lakers:
Uh, because they are the world champions. Because they are the best team in the NBA not named the Cavaliers (and we all know they are still better than Cleveland). Because experience and toughness is vital in the postseason and the Lakers have those things in spades. Because KobeGasolArtestFisherBynum is still better than any combination of players the Blazers can put on the court at any given time. Because they have Jack Nicholson and Portland has the fat Baldwin brother. 

Bold Playoff Prediction
Lakers in six games.

• • •

Team: 
Utah Jazz

Why the Blazers Want to Play the Jazz:
They don’t. 

Why the Blazers Do NOT Want to Play the Jazz:
Because anything Portland can do, Utah can do better. Remember how the Rockets were the worst possible option in the opening round of last season’s playoffs? Well, the Jazz are like that, but worse. Over the course of Utah’s four victories over Portland this season, the Jazz are shooting 56% from the field (they were over the 60% mark in half of those games) while Portland shot a little under 40% in the same games. Portland can’t win in EnergySolution arena, while the Jazz seem to have little trouble winning in Portland. Being a Blazers fan is an exercise is pure optimism—this team can beat the Lakers—but we all know that a postseason date with Utah is a very bad thing. Tank games, start Travis Diener, just do anything it takes to avoid this matchup.

Bold Playoff Prediction
Utah in three. (Portland just quits after three games and doesn’t bother dressing for game four.)

• • •

Team: 
Denver Nuggets

Why the Blazers Want to Play the Nuggets:
Even though the Blazers have only taken one of this season’s four meetings against the Nuggets (and it took 41 from Brandon Roy to do it), Nate McMillan still believes his team can hang with their Northwest Division rivals. “I think we can play with this team,” McMillan explained last week. “I think we can beat this team. We have beaten this team. But we have to play on both ends of the floor. We have to score. Tonight we didn’t shoot the ball well. We didn’t play well the first half but we’re only down a point.” That was after the yardstick game on April 1st, in which the Blazers were beaten handily, 109-92. But maybe they’re on to something, and certainly confidence counts. Rarely will Brandon Roy go 3 for 13, nor will Nicolas Batum turn in a performance he recently called his worst of the year, and maybe even his career. Plus the Nuggets will be hurt by the absence of both George Karl on the bench, and Kenyon Martin under the basket.

Why the Blazers Do NOT Want to Play the Nuggets:
Portland have been atrocious in Denver for years now and the Nuggets would have the home court advantage. Portland has lost 13 of the last 14 meetings in the Mile High city, plus the Blazers have no proven defensive answer for Carmello Anthony (unless Nicolas Batum is correct is his assertion that the most recent game was just a horrible off night). As it looks now, Anthony is too big and too strong for the Blazer wings to handle.

Bold Playoff Prediction:
Nuggets in six.

• • •

Team: 
Dallas Mavericks

Why the Blazers Want to Play the Mavericks:
Of all the teams lingering atop the Western Conference standings, Dallas is the lone team that Portland should feel confident in playing. In Dallas with Joel Przybilla withering on the floor, Blazers win. In Portland on national TV, Blazers win by a dozen. In Dallas without Roy, Andre Miller scores 52 and Portland wins again. Multiple victories in varying situations, Portland has proven that this is a Dallas team they can beat no matter what circumstance arises. 

Why the Blazers Do NOT Want to Play the Mavericks:
Dallas is no stranger to playing in the postseason. In fact, Jason Kidd has more playoff minutes than the entire Blazer roster combined (this includes the veteran minutes of Andre Miller and Juwan Howard), and there are few scenarios in the NBA more frightening than Dirk Nowitzki with the ball in the clutch seconds of a close game. The Mavs are a streaky team easily capable of reeling off 13 straight wins, and they only need four to get past the first round.

Bold Playoff Prediction
Blazers in seven.

• • • 

Team: 
Phoenix Suns

Why the Blazers Want to Play the Suns:
Portland seemed to have finally cracked the Suns this year, winning three of the four games played, including one in Phoenix. For years the knock on the Suns is they’re built for the regular season, but not the playoffs, where their run-and-gun style becomes stifled in a grinding series. As a bonus, the Suns are always exciting to watch.

Why the Blazers Do NOT Want to Play the Suns:
I’m having a hard time here. Why wouldn’t Portland want the Suns? Of all the playoff matchups out there, even considering the Blazers have blanked Dallas this season, Phoenix still seems to me the most winnable series. I guess if I had a gun to my head, I’d say the Blazers don’t want to play the Suns because Steve Nash is just radical, and dead-eyed when a game is on the line. (Although, what kind of person would put a gun to a blogger’s head regarding a fictional playoff scenario?) Regardless, Phoenix is where the Blazers want to be.

Bold Playoff Prediction:
Blazers in six.

Blazer Starters Carry Lame Bench

It wasn’t particularly pretty, but the Trail Blazers dispatched of the Kings 98-87 Saturday in Sacramento. But with just five games remaining in the airtight western conference playoff race, the manner in which Portland beat the Kings wasn’t particularly inspiring. In fact, it deserves to be forgotten quickly as possible.

‘Now wait a minute,’ you might be saying. ‘11 points is a fine victory.’ Well, yes but no. With four minutes remaining in the fourth the Blazers led by only three. From there on out, Sacramento would not score again. And even though the Blazers were never really panicked, or feeling like the game was in doubt, when headed to the playoffs, one would hope to see Portland playing their most effective basketball.

Up until losing at Denver Thursday, the Blazers were doing just that. So maybe Sacramento is the hangover from the disappointing drubbing the Blazers took in Denver.

Or perhaps it’s just a matter of inflated expectations—after all, the last time Portland played a 20-odd win team (New York) they blasted them by almost 30. I expected the same thing to happen in Sacramento. Did the Kings play outside themselves, finding hope in the role of spoiler? I wish.

No more excuses. There’s one real simple reason Saturday’s game stayed as close as it did: The Blazer bench. They absolutely stunk.

Before the game in Sacramento I found myself a victim of overconfidence, and as such I toyed with the following: could Porland’s second unit beat the Kings by themselves? I figured it’d be close, and with maybe one starter along with the bench crew, they might just be able to pull it off.

Just not Saturday.

The Blazer bench scored a combined seven points. Seven.

Together, Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster missed all their shots and did not score. Dante Cunningham made two of four attempts for four points, but also picked up four quick fouls in his 16 minutes. Jerryd Bayless made a three pointer, and nullified it with three turnovers. The Blazers second unit shot a sorry 21% from the field. (Juwan Howard sat out the game with food poisoning.)

Had the bench held up their end of the bargain, Saturday’s game would’ve indeed been the blowout expected as Portland’s starters were all hitting. Every member of the Blazers starting lineup sans Marcus Camby scored over 20 points. Brandon Roy led them all with a game-high 24. And while his scoring wasn’t there, Camby was no slouch. The veteran center pulled down a game-high 15 rebounds. The win pushed the record of this starting lineup to 14-3.

Once again the Blazer defense was able to hold Tyreke Evans well below his season average of 20.2. The odds-on favorite for Rookie of the Year was held to just six points on two of 12 shooting. In the four games this season—which the Blazers have swept—Evans has averaged just 13.2 points per game. Omri Casspi and Beno Udrich helped keep the Kings in range.

So yeah, when the bench no-shows, games aren’t going to be easy. None the less, the Blazers take care of business by beating the inferior opponent. They’re still in eighth place in the western conference, and don’t play again until Wednesday.

Blazers vs. Kings - Preview

What the holy hell is going on here?

The Portland Trail Blazers have a half dozen games remaining in the regular season, four of which they are likely to win (tonight in Sacramento, Wednesday at the Clippers, and both Dallas and Golden State at the Rose Garden), and a pair that won’t come easy (visting the Lakers and at home against the Thunder). If Portland takes four of their final six games, they’ll finish the year with 50 wins and a decent shot at the number six seed. The question of what team they will meet in the first round is nearly unanswerable at this time, since the Western Conference standings have a way of humbling even the most conservative of predictions. 

As for the Kings and their six consecutive losses, they have a date with the lottery. Oh, probably around the sixth pick or so, which is good enough to take UConn’s Tina Charles. No fooling, I’d rather have her in a lineup than Spencer Hawes. For Portland, visiting Sacramento is not like visiting Golden State. The Blazers have won six straight against the Kings, including their past two visits to Arrco Arena. Meanwhile the Kings have dropped 12 of their past 15 games, including a soul-crushing seven day span were they lost games to New Jersey, Indiana, and Minnesota. This team is in the late season sleepwalk, where wins only get you farther down the draft board and your mantra is “wait until next year.” Or maybe the year after that. 

Tip-off: 7 pm
TV: Comcast
Las Vegas Line: Portland -7
TrueHoop Network Blog: Cowbell Kingdom

Far Out Fan Profile: Greg Beaud

This one’s been sitting in my inbox for far too long. At a game last month I met a member of the Swiss media, Greg Beaud, who was in the area to cover the Olympics, but also Thabo Sefolosha who was in town with the Thunder. It was Greg’s first time in Portland, and his first time getting a chance to see his favorite NBA team—pretty weird huh, that a kid from half-way around the world is a huge Blazermaniac. Talking it became clear that Greg really knew his stuff, so I asked him a few questions for a profile on the site. Part of the reason it took me so long to get this thing up is because I was waiting for a photo from Greg, but in the end, he never sent it. Oh well, you get the idea. He’s blonde and Swiss.

The following interview took place on Feb. 15

PRS: How in Switzerland did you ever come to be a Blazer fan?

Greg Beaud: Born in 1984, I began to interest myself in basketball in the beginning of the 90’s. First the European Basketball and then the NBA. At that time, it was almost impossible to catch the games but everybody was fan of the Chicago Bulls. Too easy to cheer for the winner, I wanted another club and it was the first year of Arvydas Sabonis in the USA. Liked the “kid” during the Olympics in 1992 with Lithuania. That’s where my love for the Blazers began.

- Are there any other Blazer fans where you are? How about NBA fans in general?

I personally don’t know anybody who is a Blazer fans in Switzerland. It doesn’t mean that it doesn’t exist but if so, they are well hidden :-). When it comes to foreign competition, the swiss “fans” are used to support the most favorite. I mean, a lot were fans of the Heat when Shaq was traded to Miami. Today, those people support the Lakers or the Celtics. Tomorrow, they will root for the Nets or whoever has the best chance to win. I have to say that I don’t know how I will react when the Blazers will win a championship and I will see someone wear an Oden’s jersey or someone else’s. I probably won’t be kind with those “nice weather fans”.

- How are you able follow the team? Is it difficult?

It was very very difficult to catch games until lately. The NBA made a very good job with the International League Pass which I buy every year. Problem is that I have to watch the games in the middle of the night. When the Blazers play at home it’s between 4 and 4.30 am for me. I can record it and watch it in the morning since I work a lot in the evenings but I prefer watching games live. During regular season, I am able to watch between 70 and 75 with this ILP which was absolutely impossible before.

- Is there a professional basketball league in Switzerland? Or do people mainly follow other European leagues, or the NBA? What’s the most popular basketball league in Europe?

There is a semi-professionnal basketball league in Switzerland where Austin Johnson (former PG next to Blake Griffin at the NCAA Final Four) is currently playing. With an average of 1000-1500 people at every game, this league isn’t followed that wildely. People prefere watching NBA or European Championships/World Championships every couple of years. In Europe it’s pretty tough to find out which is the most popular league. It really depends on the country. But i think NBA is still the most viewed.

- Since you’ve now been to an NBA game (albeit a bad Blazer performance) what did you think? How is the American approach to sports different than in Switzerland?

Before this Portland - Oklahoma game, I was at three games in Chicago for my job and in one in London in pre-season. It was Boston - Minnesota T’wolves, the first game of Kevin Garnett as a Celtic against his former team. It was something really special. As you can imagine, I was amazingly excited to attend a game in the Rose Garden. Despite the loss, it has been a nice evening in Portland and I can’t wait coming back for another game to see my team win.

The NBA game is very different from the Euroleague game which isn’t a superstar League. Isolation and 1 on 1 are more present in the US but that doesn’t disturb me at all. It’s much a different approach of the game. If you are able to catch a game of the Final Four of the Euroleague, you will probabely been amazed with the quality of the play. But the game is way more spectacular in NBA.

Money is the major difference between US Sports an Swiss sports. For exemple, the best ice hockey player in Switzerland isn’t paid 1 million dollars. The budget of the richest ice hockey team is maybe 14-15 millions of dollars. In basketball it’s ten time less. Those numbers sound unreal when compared with the salary cap in NBA or in NHL. Business is way less developed here then in the US. For example, the names of the arenas aren’t sold. In the US, it’s a common thing to sell the name for a couple millions. People do realize that they are currently missing money and merchandising is being more and more important here. Actually, I think North-America is about 15-20 years ahead of Switzerland.

- Favorite Blazer of all time:

Arvydas Sabonis. No question about it. It could have been Clyde Drexler but I didn’t know this team when he was in Oregon. I hope that Sabonis will not stay at the first place of my ranking and one of the current Blazers will “beat” him. Brandon Roy maybe?

- Favorite current Blazer:

Hard to say. I really like Brandon Roy and his all around game. His killer instinct in the 4th quarters is also a beauty. Before his injury, Greg Oden was playing at a very high level despite the fouls and I have to say that he was really enjoyable to watch. If I have to choose one between both, i’d go with Brandon Roy.

- What you think the team should do to get better:

Fist of all is staying healthy. The nightmare of this season cannot happend a second time. Without all those troubles, I think the Blazers are still very dangerous. I don’t say it’s over but without a true center, it will not be easy. To get better short time, I’d try to trade the exprings contracts of Blake and Outlaw for a Center which could be very useful in the playoffs. The rumored trade for Marcus Camby is a really good one in my opinion. To get better long time, I would do a consolidation move. It was huge to have a very deep bench this season, but it doesnt bring championships. By trading Rudy or even Bayless you can obtain something very good.

Pick and Scroll

Your daily (Mon-Fri) roundup of links from around the blogosphere, typically Trail Blazers related.

• Well, Wayne Winston still thinks Portland may be a tough out.

• John Hollinger reported yesterday that the Lakers wouldn’t want to face Portland in the playoffs. However, with last night’s loss., the West playoff race is beginning to become clear. Unfortunately for the Blazers’ hopes of advancing past the first round, it looks like Portland may end up facing the Utah Jazz. However, long term it may be good for Portland to have a playoff series against a team it has trouble with. The Blazers have to learn to beat teams like the Jazz and Nuggets if there is to be any hope of winning a championship down the road.

• Mike Barrett says that the Nuggets needed this win and the Blazers were exhausted. I will say that since Seattle is no longer an NBA city, Portland has pretty much the worst travel schedule in the league. The NBA should perhaps consider a divisional realignment. It might make divisions actually mean something again.

• The Oregonian’s Jason Quick reports that while the Nuggets, Lakers, and Jazz are the opponents Portland would like to avoid, McMillan thinks the Nuggets are beatable:

“I think we can play with this team,” McMillan said. “I think we can beat this team. We have beaten this team. But we have to play on both ends of the floor. We have to score. Tonight we didn’t shoot the ball well. We didn’t play well the first half but we’re only down a point.”

• Geoffrey C. Arnold of The Oregonian belives the Blazers shouldn’t have a “defeatist attitude”

(T)he Blazers are capable of winning a series against any of those teams. It will be tough to win, but any playoff series is going to be difficult, unless the opponent is say, Toronto. So, maybe the Blazers should stop talking like they’re scared of the Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets or any other team and simply carry a winning mindset, no matter their opponent.

• The NY Daily News is reporting that Marcus Camby is interested in becoming a New York Knick again. Know what the worst part of being a Knick is? Not being able to play, and beat, the Knicks twice a year. That, and just about everything else.

• By the way, Dave Deckard from BlazersEdge agrees that Chris Andersen needs to shave. Look, I’m sporting a short beard and moustache combo myself at the moment; however, my facial hair doesn’t make me look like a Chris Kamman’s creepy wingman. C’mon Birdman, you’ve got enough money to put some color on that thing. In fact, a huge, red Viking Moustache would be awesome. Perhaps the waxed Rollie Fingers look?

• Speaking of Andersen, the Blogfather Henry Abbott goes beyond the call of duty to solve the mystery of the Birdman and the gold from the sky.

Portland Falls Short in Mile High, 109-92.

Don’t worry, it didn’t go in.

Long story short, Brandon Roy left his jumper in Portland and Nene’ murdered the Blazers interior defense.

The game started off with a Nicolas Batum turnover and a quick foul on Brandon Roy. Unfortunately for Portland, the opening sequence was a harbinger of things to come as the Blazers played a step slow and an inch short the entire night.

LaMarcus Aldridge has been starting off well in the first quarters lately, so credit Denver’s coaching staff for making Aldridge’s life difficult. The Nuggets were quick to double team and keep Aldridge out of rhythm. At one point, Aldridge went to post up and four Denver players converged on him. One would think that with so much of Denver’s attention focused on protecting the paint, the three point line would be open for business, however Portland only took nine three-point-shots the entire game. 

Early on, the Blazers seemed to somehow manage to both rush their shots and settle for jumpers. In contrast, Denver moved the ball inside and got calls. Basically, Denver started doing to Portland what Utah has done to Portland in every game this season; using point guard penetration to force Portland to collapse into the paint and short interior passes to open big men for easy buckets. The Blazers are so concerned with the initial penetration that a simple interior pass completely unravels the defense. I miss Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla.

Martell Webster came off the bench with a few ill-advised jumpers alongside some iffy defense, but soon found his rhythm. This included a highlight dunk over Chris “The Birdman” Anderson and Chris “The Birdman” Anderson’s mustache (<i>Editor’s note: I LIKE it!</i>)

Andre Miller single-handedly kept Portland in it through first half. He refused settling for jumpers and instead took it to the rim (Miller finished with 24 on the night). Portland went into the break down one.

If Roy would have gotten in on the act, Portland might have pulled it off. Instead, he made just 3 of 13 attempts. 

As was symptomatic of the game as a whole, the little things just went wrong for Portland. Shots were just a tad off. Andre Miller forgot how to hit a technical free throw. All the while, Denver capitalized on misses and turnovers by getting out in transition for easy buckets.

The Playoffs are all about matchups, and if the Blazers happen to draw the Nuggets, they will get a steady diet of Nene’ cutting to the hoop, Chauncey Billups bullying into the paint, and Carmelo Anthony isolations—everything we’ve seen not just tonight, but all season. Portland did a decent job defending  Anthony through three quarters, forcing the Nuggets star into turnovers and keeping him off the line. At the same time the Blazer defense couldn’t hold off Billups, Anthony, and Nene. The trio finished with 68 of Denver’s 109 points. Portland’s offense was dull, uninspired and only managed 92 points against a Nuggets team who had been giving up 103.2 over the previous ten games. Funny how these things go up and down so fast.

Random Notes:

•  Chris Anderson went down with an ankle injury and while he writhed in pain, someone accidentally dropped some sort of coin into the Birdman’s craw. I half expected a gumball to pop out in exchange. Get well soon Mr. Anderson, and please shave (<i>Ed: No Way!</i>).

• John Elway looks more like Gary Busey every day, it’s terrifying.

Playoff Tickets & More

First, let’s have another look at last night’s dunk by Brandon Roy—perhaps his best yet?

And now, a some information from the team regarding playoff tickets. If you hope to get any, I’d be ready with credit card in hand on 2:00:01 PM on April 15:

PORTLAND, Ore. – Available tickets for the Portland Trail Blazers first two home playoff games will go on sale on Thursday, April 15, at 2:00 p.m.

By virtue of tonight’s 118-90 win over New York, and losses by Memphis and Houston, the Trail Blazers clinched a playoff spot for the 28th time in the team’s 40-year history. First-round opponent, game dates and times will be determined no later than April 14, after the conclusion of the NBA’s regular season.

Tickets will be available via trailblazers.com or by calling 1-888-716-5510. A maximum of four tickets for each game are available to each customer, subject to availability. Fans who have not previously ordered online are encouraged to set up an account in advance of the on-sale time to expedite the ordering process. Tickets will not be available at the Rose Garden box office.

The 2009 NBA Playoffs begin on April 17. The top four seeds in each conference will begin the playoffs at home; seeds 5-8 will begin on the road. Last season, the fourth-seeded Trail Blazers lost the best-of-seven series to the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets, 4 games to 2.

Currently, the Trail Blazers are seeded seventh in the Western Conference with a record of 46-29. With four wins in their final seven games, Portland would finish with back-to-back 50+ win seasons for the first time since 1999-2001.