Portland defeats Miami 92-90 and we refuse to sink to temperature pun headlines

When you find yourself scrapping three hundred words with 57 seconds left in a game either something terrible has occurred or something truly amazing has happened.  

A paragraph breaking down the failure to convert two baskets that would have taken the lead with two minutes left in the game leading to yet another Chris Bosh jumper; a line wondering how a team can miss four straight shots right at the basket with eighty-seconds to play; a rhetorical question about whether any of them thought they could actually win this game.  

All of it gladly deleted in favor of one word: Witness.  

When I found out earlier this week that I would be covering the game tonight it occurred to me that I hadn’t seen LeBron James play basketball in person. I am old enough that I should have caught him in town by now, but for one reason or another I never had the opportunity. I wondered how he would perform knowing it would be the late-night TNT game and he plays well in the Rose Garden. I wondered what sort of outrageous passes he might throw, what defensive plays he might make, what fast breaks he might finish. And as I watched him warm up taking left-corner three after left-corner three, nailing all but a couple, as the rest of the players on the court worked on low-post moves or free throws, I forgot I was on Media Row and was just incredibly excited to watch LeBron James play basketball. 

I had the shirt years ago, but tonight I would become a Witness. 

Only, it wasn’t LeBron James who would capture the attention of twenty-thousand fans at the Rose Garden tonight. Though flirting heavily with a triple-double (15 pts, 10 reb, nine asst) his game was fairly pedestrian. For him, anyway. Yes, he made a behind-the-back play that made me wish I could skip back five-seconds on my Tivo, he stole the ball twenty-seconds into the second  half and again with the third quarter winding down, and connected on a dunk to end the half. 

But even with a 12-point lead and seven minutes to play, he and the Heat couldn’t beat the Blazers. 

Instead, the crowd and the TNT audience witnessed Nicolas Batum taking control of this game and doing every single thing the Blazers needed to beat the defending champs. In 42 minutes we witnessed an efficient 8-of-15 shooting performance (28 points), seven crucial rebounds, five well-timed assists, plus two steals and a blocked shot for good measure. It was Batum’s most complete game of the season and it lead to a nine-game home winning streak that any team in the league would be proud of.

If Batum hadn’t put his finger prints and gaudy numbers all over this game, the night would have well-deservedly belonged to Wesley Matthews. Wes played incredibly tough defense on James while carrying some of the offensive burden for the team as they struggled to climb back from 12-points down in the fourth quarter. Scoring 16 of his 18 points in the second half, Matthews fueled the Blazers’ offensive comeback as they outscored Miami 53-38 in the second half. Punctuated by back-to-back three point makes with under a minute to play, Matthews secured the one-point lead with twenty-six seconds left in the game. Tonight Blazers fans witnessed a scrappy defensive effort by Matthews only outdone but his well-timed shots.  

In the locker room Batum was asked what the thought of Wesley’s final shot. Smiling he said, “Well, I thought ‘No! No! Nooooo! YESSSS!’”. 

The Blazers beat the Miami Heat for the first time since 2008 in Portland, putting on an incredible performance for basketball fans to witness.

 And now what you came here for, Maddison’s take:

Final Notes:

• Portland is 12-3 in the last 15 games, tied for second in the league over the last 15 games (LAC 13-2; IND 12-3)
• The nine game win streak is the longest at the Rose Garden since 2009
• LaMarcus Aldridge had a strong night too, collecting 15 rebounds and matching a season-high
• Portland held Miami to 31.6% behind the arc
• Portland’s FG% of 37.5 was the second-lowest in a win
• The national anthem was on point, saxophone guy nailed it

Preview: Blazers vs. Heat

The defending champion Miami Heat make their only appearance at the Rose Garden tonight. The game is on TNT, and the Heat are coming off a bad loss to the Pacers on Tuesday, so don’t expect LeBron and company to be on the autopilot they’re sometimes known to slip into.

Starters:

Portland: Damian Lillard (PG), Wesley Matthews (SG), Nicolas Batum (SF), LaMarcus Aldridge (PF), J.J. Hickson (C)

Miami: Mario Chalmers (PG), Dwyane Wade (SG), LeBron James (SF), Udonis Haslem (PF), Chris Bosh (C)

Stats:

Per ESPN’s Stats & Information department, the Heat have scored fewer than 100 points in their last three games, their longest such streak of the season.

The Blazers are 4-1 in 2013. In that time, their offense is scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions, although their defense is giving up 107.8.

On the Floor:

Shane Battier is out once again for the Heat, with Udonis Haslem starting in his place. Without one of their best wing defenders, the Heat will need to rely more on LeBron to cover both Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum. This should create a significant advantage for LaMarcus Aldridge, who will likely be facing up against Haslem a lot of the time. A wild card is Wade, who has looked good lately but been inconsistent this season due to nagging health issues. If he plays like a 100 percent healthy Dwyane Wade, the Blazers simply do not have the defensive manpower to compete. Plus, J.J. Hickson will likely spend some time on Chris Bosh, which will be pretty hilarious. Neither team has a very deep bench, although Ray Allen and Mike Miller both give the Heat shooting threats the Blazers don’t really have.

Of course, none of this matters because the Heat have LeBron James, who is an invincible cyborg from the future sent to destroy everything in his path who is having an even better year than last year despite only being about 70 percent engaged at this point in the season. So there’s that.

Pick-up game: Links from elsewhere in the Blazeosphere

Like all bloggers, we at PRS while away our days thinking about the most extravagant ways we can spend the towering stacks of cash we are scarcely able to move around our apartment without hitting. If you find yourself in a similar boat, and are as sartorially inclined as we are, then this spectacular 1983-84 Clyde Drexler jersey can be yours for the meager sum of $260. We are ordering extras, because of the threat of caviar stains.

Late to the party on this one, but James Herbert got inside Damian Lillard’s head for an excellent profile of Damian Lillard last week. As we’ve mentioned here before, Damian is not exactly loquacious, so it’s frankly sort of a jerk move of James to get all of his words for 2013 before anybody else could write a profile. Seriously, it’s worth a read. 

Yesterday, Terry Stotts had himself a Skype with TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott. They talk overtime success, the looming specter of tanking, and something that made me Google Bum Phillips. Well worth a watch. 

Joe Freeman has done great work chronicling the LaMarcus Aldridge beat all season, and his latest piece on the Blazers’ internal conviction that LA is the game’s best power forward does not buck that trend. Great read, with some great locker room insight from the Blazers’ win in New York. 

Finally, Jonathan Abrams’ profile of Rasheed Wallace and Jerry Stackhouse is just terrific. Between this and his earlier deep dive on Zach Randolph, Abrams is doing the lord’s work bringing light on some characters whose time in Portland was NOT EXACTLY ROSES. 

On Nicolas Batum's Growth as a Pick-and-Roll Playmaker and Elsewhere

For his entire career, Nicolas Batum has been the kind of player that entranced scouts and opposing GMs with his potential. The 24-year-old Frenchman possesses an impossibly smooth shooting stroke and freakish length that gives one every reason to think he has the ability to become an elite two-way wing. And although he’s improved every season he’s been in the NBA, the four-year, $46 million offer sheet he signed this summer with the Minnesota Timberwolves was a lightning rod in Portland. The talent was clearly there, but Neil Olshey’s decision to match Minnesota’s offer sheet signified a turning point for Batum. He couldn’t get by on upside alone anymore. He’s being paid like a star, so it was time for him to start playing like one.

Two months into the season, Batum has made it abundantly clear that he’s worth the Blazers’ investment in him. He’s been a perfect fit for Terry Stotts’ movement-heavy, free-flowing offense, and the degree to which he’s thriving in his setting only drives home how much his talents were being wasted as a glorified spot-up shooter under Nate McMillan. He’s proven that he has the ability to score in a wider variety of ways, something that was clear to anyone who watched him with the French national team in the Olympics this summer. But the biggest stride he’s made, and the most surprising, has been his effectiveness as a passer out of the pick-and-roll.

Watching Batum this season, his improved confidence and creativity as a passer are plainly apparent. A cursory glance at his assist numbers backs this up: he’s averaging 4.5 assists per game this season, tripling his previous career-best mark of 1.5 in 2010-11. According to Basketball Reference, he’s assisting on 19.3 percent of all baskets while he’s on the floor, which more than doubles the rate of any of his four previous seasons. But while the surface-level stats seem to back up the eye test he’s acing, it’s when you dig deeper into his pick-and-roll playmaking statistics that a clearer picture starts to emerge of just how much better he’s gotten.

According to Synergy’s play data, last season Batum ran a total of 66 plays as the ballhandler in a pick-and-roll, either shooting or passing to a shooter. These plays produced a decidedly mediocre .848 points per possession, 41st percentile in the league. 34 games into the 2012-13 season, he’s already virtually doubled the amount of pick-and-rolls he’s run, and those 131 plays have produced 1.031 points per possession, putting him in the 89th percentile. Needless to say, this is a dramatic improvement over last year, and the improvement is made even more impressive by the increased number of chances he’s had.

The numbers get even more impressive when you look at his passing alone. His pick-and-roll possessions skew 45-55 between going to his own offense and creating a shot for a teammate. Pick-and-roll possessions which end with Batum taking a shot result in .9ppp, the 19th-best mark in the league. The possessions on which he passes to a teammate are a different story. These plays have led to 1.158ppp, the 10th-best overall mark, and second-best among non-guards behind Chandler Parsons.

This may be the most striking area of improvement for Batum, but it certainly isn’t the only one. He’s starting to make good on reputation of a lockdown defender that was given to him before he had earned it. His success defending pick-and-rolls and isolations has been noticeable, as he’s allowing just .59ppp on the former (18th-best in the NBA by Synergy) and .53ppp on the latter (16th-best). His three-point shooting has taken a slight dip, but he’s comfortable shooting from more places on the floor. A comparison between his shot charts from the last two seasons bears this out.

Here’s where he was shooting in 2011-12:

And here’s what he’s been doing this year:

In nearly every facet of the game, we’re starting to see a more complete Nicolas Batum emerge, one that is finally ready to take the mantle of franchise cornerstone that his limitless raw tools always suggested was in the cards.

Post-game round-up: Blazers 125- Magic 119 (Video)

We’re starting to try new things with how we handle our recaps here at PRS. We’re going to be delivering you a round-up from a few or all of our writers to give you a run down of each game’s notable storylines so you can parse out the hardwood signal from the noise (holler atchaboi, Nate Silver). One feature we’re proud to debut tonight is Maddison Bond’s visual recap—a drawn-out timeline of the live, semi-demented reactions from our resident artist. Click through the image below to get a larger version. 

Click for larger image

This was a high-scoring overtime contest that often lapsed into sloppy and tired play. In the second half, defensive effort for both teams was wan, as the Blazers posted 60 points after the break. Portland got balanced contributions from their core players to win their eighth in a row, while the Magic fell to nine straight losses. Four Blazers posted double-doubles on the night; LaMarcus Aldridge and JJ Hickson paired double digit points with rebounds, while both Nic Batum and Damian Lillard notched more than ten assists. For the Magic, Arron Afflalo and JJ Redick were standouts, with the latter in particular having a strong game.

Postgame, Terry Stots continued his praise of LaMarcus Aldridge, touting the big man as Portland’s “most consistent player on both ends of the floor.” Stotts has been discussing Aldridge in these terms for a while; jaded Blazer fans might see this as a defense of a difficult player who needs to be kept happy, while glass-half-full types will note that Aldridge has been playing more balanced, aggressive basketball lately and providing a hefty base of high-percentage production. Tonight, he posted 27 points on 12/22 shooting, ten rebounds and five assists. Here’s Stotts on the effort:

Finally, our own Sean Highkin weighs in quickly on the final possession of isolation, a play which will surely receive some discussion:

The Blazers pulled away in overtime, but I can’t help but think that the extra period could have been avoided. It almost feels like Damian Lillard is isolating at the ends of games out of a sense of obligation. It’s a great moment when he hits the shot, like in the New Orleans or Houston games. But the Blazers didn’t need a three, and there’s no way the Magic expected anything else would be called. A corner three for Batum, a look for Aldridge in the post, a shot for Matthews, or even a Lillard drive to the basket would have made more sense than the painful seconds spent watching Lillard dribble with Arron Afflalo hounding him before he forced up a three. Thanks to the playcall, the starters all logged five extra minutes just as the Blazers prepare to face Miami, Golden State, and Oklahoma City over the rest of the week.

Agree with Sean? Disagree? This is Stotts’ reaction, notable for his seeming lack of enthusiasm for the shot— and not just its outcome:

More to come on the game tomorrow morning. 

Preview: Magic at Blazers

Stuff!

The Orlando Magic are visiting the Rose Garden tonight, led by their mascot, Stuff. This is the game that the nation will be eagerly gathering around to watch (and the first time you’ve heard that joke tonight! Right?). Let’s have a gander at what this matchup has to offer.

Starters:

Orlando: DeQuan Jones, Andrew Nicholson, Nikola Vucevic, Arron Afflalo, Jameer Nelson

Portland: Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, JJ Hickson, Wesley Matthews, Damian Lillard

Stats:

The Blazers have actually been outscored by an average of .7 points on their last ten games in spite of the 7-3 record they posted over that span. Orlando, having lost ten straight, is posting a margin of -4.9 on their last ten. And the Blazers, in spite of having a notably soft strength of schedule, have actually played a slightly stiffer slate per Hollinger’s Power Rankings.

The Magic have an expected W-L of 13-20 right now, a game better than their 12-21. The Blazers’ 18-15 substantially outpaces their expected W-L of 14-19. 

On the floor:

The Magic, though not an offensive juggernaut by any means, will test Portland’s perimeter defense. Damian Lillard has had widely chronicled struggles on the defensive end of the floor, so Jameer Nelson’s recent stretch of torrid play may continue tonight. 

In the frontcourt, the Blazers have a decided advantage against DeQuan Jones and Andrew Nicholson. The pair have 11 starts between them and will be tasked with slowing Nic Batum’s versatility and LaMarcus Aldridge’s steady scoring. Orlando center Nik Vucevic has been averaging seventy gabillion rebounds a game over his last 3 (actually 19.33) and I predict that he and J.J. Hickson will break out into a knife fight as both are tied at 9 rebounds. 

Potential Headlines:

“Growing Blazers show maturity; take care of business against struggling Magic”

“Blazers still maturing; lose focus against struggling Magic”

“Scrappy Magic teach growing Blazers a lesson in focus”

“Focused Stuff leads Tralfamadorian revolution past growing Blazers”

Claver as Starter, Matthews as Sixth Man Makes Sense for Blazers

Wesley Matthews’ hip injury has left the Blazers without one of their most reliable scoring weapons over the past three weeks. For a young team still figuring out its identity, an injury to such a key player has the potential to be a death blow. Rookie Victor Claver has started the majority of games in Matthews’ place, which on paper seems like it would prompt a massive downgrade to the starting lineup. But it’s been fascinating to watch over the past few games as the starting lineup’s production hasn’t dipped in any meaningful way, while the bench continues to struggle. Claver, while not a scorer, has found ways to contribute in the starting unit and looks more comfortable every game he plays in this increased role. Given the rest of the starters’ offensive potency, Claver seems closer to carving out a niche with the team after struggling to get on the floor in the early season. In the interests of using both players in ways that best maximize their abilities, there’s a strong case to be made that Terry Stotts has stumbled into a new way forward, with Claver starting and Matthews as a sixth man.

Keeping the starting lineup the way it is when Matthews returns to action could prove beneficial to both players. Claver has scored 28 points on the season on 11-for-38 shooting. But scoring was never supposed to be Claver’s strength, and it isn’t what he was brought over from Spain to do for the Blazers. It’s no secret that Portland’s bench has had problems scoring all season, and when Claver plays with other reserves, he’s just another guy who can’t score, something the Blazers’ second unit has more than enough of. When he’s on the floor with Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and J.J. Hickson, however, he isn’t leaned on nearly as much for offensive production. Playing with four capable scorers allows him to concentrate on defense, making cuts to set up passes for teammates’ shots, and rebounding.

There are significant advantages to bringing Matthews off the bench as well. For one thing, it would finally give the Blazers’ bench a player capable of scoring consistently, something they’ve lacked all year. For another, it would put an end to the Lillard-Ronnie Price two-PG backcourts Stotts has often played this season, which have left a lot to be desired. In 105 minutes this season, lineups featuring both Lillard and Price have scored just 95.4 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 100.9. These lineups don’t particularly make sense for either player—Price doesn’t offer nearly enough as a scorer for you to feel comfortable playing him at shooting guard, and while Lillard is certainly a good shooter, it seems a waste to have by far the Blazers’ best floor manager on the court and not running the offense.

Price and Matthews make much more sense together. As a two-man unit, they have been in lineups together for 125 minutes this year. While these lineups have been slightly worse defensively than those with Price and Lillard (allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions), they’ve been astronomically better offensively (105.5 points scored per 100 possessions). Matthews’ greatest strength is as a shooter, something he isn’t able to do nearly enough playing in lineups with three other high-usage scorers. Using Matthews as a sixth man puts him a position where his primary role can be as a catch-and-shoot player. As a distributor, Price represents a huge dropoff from Lillard, but the strides Nicolas Batum has made as a passer in recent weeks mitigate this somewhat. As long as either Lillard or Batum are on the floor with Matthews (a pretty safe bet, given how much Stotts likes to mix-and-match his lineups), there will be someone to feed him the ball when he’s open.

For as little scoring as Claver gives the Blazers, their starting lineups don’t fare much worse offensively with him on the floor than they do with Matthews. The lineups’ respective True Shooting Percentages are nearly identical, and while the team gives up a three-point threat with Matthews out of the lineup, they make up for it in other ways. They are 1.4 points per 100 possessions worse with Claver than with Matthews, but since they also allow 1.7 fewer points per 100 possessions on defense with Claver in the starting lineup, it’s more or less a wash. The two iterations of the starting unit have identical assist-turnover ratios, but the Lillard-Claver-Batum-Aldridge-Hickson version rebounds better, fouls less, and gets blocked less per 36 minutes.

None of this is to say Matthews is having a bad season, or that the idea of benching him should be viewed as a demotion. Before his injury, he was much improved in just about every offensive statistical category over last season. He’s been more comfortable shooting the ball, and especially shown more confidence (and effectiveness) attacking the rim. But given how much Lillard, Aldridge, and Batum offer as scorers, and how paltry and inconsistent their bench production can be, it might make sense for Stotts to try an arrangement similar to the one that has been so effective for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are able to start relative offensive non-contributor Thabo Sefolosha at shooting guard because their starting lineup also features Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Serge Ibaka. This allows a starting-caliber scorer like Kevin Martin (and before him, James Harden) to anchor the second unit and provide stability when the starters are off the floor. Obviously, the Lillard-Batum-Aldridge trio isn’t at the level of Westbrook-Durant-Ibaka, and nor is Matthews as good a player as Harden or Martin. But that’s completely beside the point—the Thunder are title contenders, and the Blazers are a lottery team, something that would be true regardless of who starts for Portland. What’s important for the Blazers in this rebuilding season is to make sure all of their players are being used in ways that play to their strengths and allow them to develop as players. Using Claver as the team’s Sefolosha and Matthews as their Martin/Harden may be just that.

All lineup data courtesy of NBA.com’s Media Central stats tool.

Blazers 95 - Hornets 94: "I was due for one"

It’s funny what the structure of a game can do to an evening of basketball. 48 minutes, four quarters, one game in a season; even the most logical of endpoints is necessarily arbitrary, and that’s just the nature of the beast. My point is that this game—the Damian shot game—was not the Damian shot game at all for most of it.

For three quarters, this was a best-case scenario against a weaker team. This was the emergence of an open-floor offense with fluid ball movement and balanced contributions. This was the third and most convincing win in the Blazers’ second three-game streak. It was the return of Nic Batum from his recent slump, posting an extremely rare 5 by 5 box score line with 11 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds, 5 steals and 5 blocks. Cut another way, it could have been a parable for the dangers of a young team taking its foot off the gas. But it’s not any of those things, because the rookie hit the shot. 

For a long time, this evening’s game felt like Terry Stotts’ vision taking shape. The Blazers finished with 25 team assists and 11 three-pointers on 29 attempts, passing with rhythm and taking the shots that emerged. And in continuing the trend that has been developing over the past several games, the bench provided solid production. Sasha Pavlcvic, Victor Claver, and Luke Babbitt all integrated themselves into the flow of the game, and Babbitt scored more than ten points for the second straight contest. Sure, it came against a Hornets team that seemed unable to get out of its own way for three quarters, but if you were looking for signs of the Blazers’ growth, you could find a few tonight.

Then the Hornets came back. It was an odd comeback, because even as the margin approached a single possession, the mood inside the Rose Garden was valedictory. J.J. Hickson was playing perhaps his best game as a professional, posting 24 points and 16 rebounds, and Batum was rounding out his stat line. But then, all of a sudden, Greivis Vasquez nearly had a triple-double, and Ryan Anderson seemingly hadn’t missed a shot. Before the crowd knew it, the Blazers had a game on their hands. And then the rookie hit the shot.

And so in a certain way, a game that might have been the most encouraging of the season—a well-rounded effort that conformed to Stotts’ stylistic preferences—became a game that Blazers fans will find even more encouraging for having nearly been lost. 

As I’ve been thinking and writing a lot about, this era of Blazers basketball is taking off in fits and starts. Right now, the team is still past and future tense: they did, they were, they could be, they may. And with a few notable exceptions, there aren’t many figures in this organization who would know when a team makes that tensal switch. Maybe it happens because a young team starts moving the ball and holds on to close out a surprisngly feisty opponent. Maybe it doesn’t happen for years, because lasting change resists a single moment. Or maybe it happens when the rookie hits a shot.