The James Harden Trade and the Blazers
Sean Highkin | Sunday, October 28, 2012 at 12:52PM 
Over the past week, word out of Oklahoma City was that the Thunder and James Harden were far apart in talks on a contract extension. It seemed more and more likely that the two sides would not come to an agreement before the Oct. 31 deadline, and Harden would be forced to test restricted free agency. Because I’m someone who spends way too much time dreaming up hypothetical NBA trade and free-agency scenarios, I took the assumption that Harden would hit the market in July and more or less figured out the Blazers’ next year’s worth of front-office moves, which I was prepared to write up as a post as soon as the extension clock expired. The plan looked something like this:
- Decline the options for 2013-14 on Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams, and Nolan Smith, a move I’ve already covered.
- Use the first half of this season as an opportunity to showcase Wesley Matthews, and trade him at the deadline for for whatever expiring contracts and picks they could.
- After the season, waive the non-guaranteed contracts of Ronnie Price, Jared Jeffries, and Sasha Pavlovic. Together with not picking up the three young players’ options and getting out of Matthews’ contract, releasing these three veterans would create enough cap room for Neil Olshey to sign a player to a max contract.
- Use this space to sign James Harden to an offer sheet. This move would have been philosophically similar to Olshey’s pursuit of Roy Hibbert this past summer. Nobody was surprised when Indiana matched that offer, and Hibbert ending up a Blazer was a longshot from the start. But it was still the right approach to take—Olshey identified the one player on the market he felt was worth going all-in for, and pulled out all the stops to try and land him. Harden hitting free agency would have been a similar scenario. If the Thunder decided not to match, Olshey would shift from rebuild mode to a win-now mindset and attempt to build a contender around Harden, Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and whoever he drafted in 2013, when the Blazers will inevitably be picking high again.
- If the Thunder did decide to match Harden’s max offer (which, until Saturday night, seemed inevitable), Olshey’s next move would be to trade Aldridge for young assets and future draft picks, and go all-in on the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes of 2014.
This was the plan I had devised, and everything about it seemed to check out. Until Saturday night, that is, when Sam Presti threw a wrench into the entire Western Conference playoff race by dealing Harden to the Rockets. Houston seems prepared to offer him a max extension right away, effectively taking him off next summer’s free-agent market. The trade will make waves all around the Western Conference, but it affects the Blazers specifically in three meaningful ways.
Before the trade, the Thunder had a prohibitive stranglehold on the Northwest Division. Despite the moves made this summer by the Nuggets and Timberwolves, there was no conceivable scenario in which Oklahoma City wouldn’t run away with the division. They’re still the heavy favorites to win it, but now, it’s not unthinkable for the Nuggets to challenge them. The Blazers are well out of the playoff picture this season, and should instead be competing for one of the top spots in the lottery. But if everything goes according to Olshey’s plan, they will be back in the mix in the coming years. And when that time arrives, the Thunder will no longer be the unstoppable juggernaut they were poised to be for the next half-decade.
Houston got markedly better in the immediate short term, which is great news for a Portland team heading into a rebuilding year. Before they acquired Harden, the Rockets were looking at a roster of Jeremy Lin, Kevin Martin, Omer Asik, and a bunch of rookies and minimum-salary players—a clear lock for the lottery. Now, Daryl Morey is going all-in, and while the Rockets are still a longshot to overtake the Jazz, Wolves, or Warriors for one of the last seeds in the playoffs, they’ll be looking to make noise all season. That’s one fewer team the Blazers will have to worry about finishing with a worse record, meaning less competition for the top of next year’s draft.
But most significantly, the Harden trade makes Portland less likely to be major players in next summer’s free-agent market. Since becoming the Blazers’ GM, Olshey has stressed the importance of avoiding signing players to big, cap-killing contracts who don’t put the team in contention. That’s why he sat out the rest of this summer’s free-agent activity after missing out on Hibbert. And the one player on the market next year (outside of Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, neither of whom the Blazers have any shot at landing whatsoever) capable of having that type of impact on a young franchise like Portland would have been Harden. Now, if they decide to make a splash, they’ll be stuck overpaying for the likes of Al Jefferson or Josh Smith, neither of whom improve their future outlook enough to justify losing their financial flexibility.
What this means is that, barring Damian Lillard becoming Kyrie Irving, Nicolas Batum becoming Scottie Pippen, and the Blazers landing a Shabazz Muhammad-level talent in the draft, next season will be yet another rebuilding year. And that almost certainly indicates that Aldridge’s days in Portland are numbered once this season ends. If Aldridge has another All-Star year, his trade value will be at an all-time high as a top-20 player making less than max with two years left on his contract. Trading him becomes even more enticing when you factor in that Andrew Wiggins, the prize of the 2014 draft class, is widely regarded as the best high-school prospect since LeBron James. It would seem that the logical move for Olshey would be to cash in on Aldridge’s value for young players and future draft picks, and put the team in the best possible position to land a transcendent talent like Wiggins.
The Harden trade is a double-edged sword for the Blazers. It forces them to address these issues sooner than they might have liked, but it also opens up the Northwest Division somewhat for when they do eventually climb back into contention. I still think the franchise is on the right track. The route to get there may just be different now.
Reader Comments (8)
I keep reading this hoping that u will say something worth reading. However u seem to be the fox news of NBA reporting. You forgot the part where we have to trade Aldridge because of the weapons of mass destruction. Also, Shouldn't we be asking for Batums birth certificate, I heard he wasn't born in the US. Blazers are fine Homie. LA is an all star. Batum scored 27 points in 28 minutes followed by 17 and 11. Lillard is top 5 point guard as a rookie and this team looks a lot like the Chauncy Billups piston team that won it all. Inexperience aside this team looks great. Not to mention I'm pretty sure RIP cities one banner came at the hands of a pretty inexperience team. There is enough rainy days in Portland without your constant doom and gloom reports. Hopefully the Orlando job will open back up and you can head back to that juggernaut.
"Lillard is top 5 point guard as a rookie and this team looks a lot like the Chauncy Billups piston team that won it all."
This is the single dumbest sentence ever typed on a keyboard.
Case closed.
I don't know much. But what I do know is that PDX is just not a sexy FA destination. Never will be. And there will always be several other teams with cap space to compete against them in any given summer FA spending spree. I'd say the better way to try and get Harden would have been to trade Lilllard, Wesley, picks, cash and whatever else the Thunder wanted for Harden and Maynor. That way you still have a good PG in Eric Maynor and go for a PDX-only big three of Harden, Batum and LA. That keeps LA happy and the Blazers could have done that over the weekend as well. As much promise as Lillard shows, I'd do that trade any day. And I'm not sure that Houston deal is any better assuming, of course, that OKC thinks Lilard will be as good as everyone seems to think he will be and that he can play nice with Westbrook in the backcourt together.
Hey Zach, don't go closin cases till you did your homework. Lillard has already been compared to Chauncy on many occasions. Batum is a run off curls wing player like Rip Hamilton, Matthews is a defensive 3 pt shooting wing like Prince. Not to mention they can both play either wing spot just like Rip and Prince did. Then you add in LA at the stretch 4 with not quite the range of Rasheed but more of a low post game, thanks to Bill Bayno (Vegas Baby). Finally you have an overachieving undersized center without the Afro. Big difference is no Larry Brown. Meaning no 79point a game defense. However this doesn't change the above comparison. Furthermore Brandon Jennings was 5th in scoring and Jose Calderon was 4th in assist, and I would take Lillard over either of those two right now. Not to mention what he's going to be playing like at the end of the season. In conclusion, you might want to open up the case and look at the facts.
^ Guy, what are you chatting about?
I really can't believe I have to do this...
Chris Paul
Derrick Rose
Deron Williams
Rajon Rondo
Russell Westbrook
Steve Nash
Tony Parker
Ty Lawson
Jrue Holliday
Kyrie Irving
Steph Curry
Ricky Rubio
There's at least a dozen point guards who are absolutely better than Damian Lillard right now. Lillard could be good, maybe even great, but for the love of Zeus' beard, put down the crack pipe.
I've done my 'homework.' You, obviously, have not. You just compared a Blazers team that likely won't win 35 games to one of the best defensive teams of all-time.
What about the Blazers' depth? Remember how you failed to address that? If you think depth isn't important, just ask the 2011-12 Lakers.
Please, do not stalk my Twitter either. That's weird, dude.
Case closed.
Zach, are you honestly saying you truly believe Steph Curry is better than Lillard? Seriously dude?!....I mean...seriously?!
Lets's take a peek see, shall we....
Steph Curry carreer assist avg = 5.8 apg. Lillard will destroy that, and don't argue with me because you know it's true.
Steph Curry career TO avg = 2.97 pg. Lillard is hands down a superior ball handler than Curry. If you do not believe that is true, you have no business writing this column.
Steph Curry career PPG = 17.5. If you believe for one second that Lillard won't at the very least be at the same avg, you're high.
I'm not trying to piss you off buddy, but, to quote our great President, "the math just doesn't add up."
I agree with VegasBlazer.
Also, I picked only bobcats players for my fantasy team and expect to win it all.