Something to Chew On...
Andrew R Tonry | Tuesday, February 8, 2011 at 9:17PM ;)
I got an interesting note from the Blogfather this morning—a real head-scratcher. I think he felt the same way. But it’s been bouncing around in my brain for the better part of the day and I think it’s at least worth sharing. To wit:
A stat geek would tell you that players very seldom play years at one level, then break through and produce at a much higher level.In other words, LaMarcus Aldridge would be in keeping with history if he spent most of his career not at this level, but more like he was.
I realize even suggesting just that is inflammatory, but it is what it is.
So, let’s just say that this is the best Aldridge will ever be, right now. You could, conceivably, take that as an argument to sell high.
In which case, what could you get? Maybe something like this.
I don’t know.
This is probably all crazy talk, and toxic to nice LaMarcus who is presently killing it. But if you are a true Moneyballer, his spurt of great play may be the kind of thing one can turn into a huge advantage.
Now, I’ve never been a big Kevin Love fan. I just can’t get passed the Jersey beard. And who knows if he’s really a winner or simply a guy piling up huge numbers on a bad team because there’s no one else helping.
But as Bill Simmons says, if the trade were propsed, “which team says no first?” Probably the Blazers, things being what they are. Also because the Wolves know that Love is likely to bolt from the frigid tundra just as soon as his contract allows.
I wouldn’t do it, as I don’t see why Aldridge can’t continue to produce at such a level, or perhaps continue growing.
But I see the logic.
Reader Comments (9)
Regression to the mean is a big deal, and I can see the caution here. However, it's not like Aldridge is suddenly shooting a freakishly high percentage on his long twos or some statistical oddity. He, along with the coaching staff, has intentionally changed his shot distribution to be more efficient and draw more free throws. He's doing this while taking more attention from defenses, and has continued to be efficient with a higher usage rate.
So I don't think that's a justifiable concern. Besides, if we trade Aldridge for Love (and I do like Love as a player), Love cannot be a high-usage first scoring option...and who's that leave? Wes Money? I <3 Wes but he's a much better 3rd or 4th scorer.
What really worries me is that Aldridge will regress, not statistically, but due to his role in the offense changing back after Roy returns. That's scary.
It might be scary to consider Aldridge regressing because of Roy's return, but I think that takes for granted Roy returning to some semblance of his former glory. Which is even more optimistic than "Oden-Hoping" at this point, in my opinion.
Im ashamed that ESPN made you put this article and trade up here. Not only is Aldridge better than Kevin Love now (not statistically, maybe, but in terms of offensive focus/ability and consistently beating double teams while being successful).
I will say that this trade does bring the local boys home. Basically what this post is saying is the blazers should give up on any chance for success and get their home grown talent back, sell out the stadium, embrace the rabid (would be even more so) local fan base, and give up any chance of really competing in the league.
Ill pass
Wouldn't that apply to Love as well, or even more so? Is Henry's contention that Love will ALWAYS put up historic rebounding/3-point shooting numbers?
This is just a silly trade.
I don't even want a nibble ... not even a taste. Love is good, but I'll pass.
Aldridge is eating up PF's, including Griffin and Love, head to head.
love for aldridge? yes, in a nanosecond.
No, no, no.
Aldridge is not miraculously shooting a higher percentage that is above his average. He has changed his ganme to adapt to circumstances....which to me, tosses out the whole "regression to the mean" argument. He isn;t a 32 year old just now having a good season. He's all of something like 25, with his best seasons ahead of him (knocking on wood regarding injuries). LMA has the ability to do things Love only dreams about.