Locked Out - How A Work Stoppage Might Affect the Trail Blazers?
Nathan Begley | Monday, September 6, 2010 at 12:56AM 
There’s a storm on the horizon. As we count down to the coming season, the real clock is ticking towards the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement in 2011. As NBA owners hold fast to the idea of radically reducing how much players get paid and marching toward a hard(er) cap and the players staunchly refuse to give in to what they perceive to be ludicrous and exploitative demands, the question shifts from “Will there be a lockout in 2011-12?” to “How long will the lockout be?”
And since on one can say, the question that naturally follows is, “How will a lockout impact my team?” Well, the last, and only, time there was a lockout was way back in 1998 and that dispute lasted until the very last day that a minimum 50 game season could still be played. In other words, the owners held out until the players caved to some of the demands for salary controls, otherwise the entire season would have been lost.
A consensus seems to be building that a similar scenario is highly likely to occur again. Greed, in this case, trumps learning from history. Owners have a perverse incentive to lock because players they don’t have to pay players during the work stoppage, while continuing to receive revenue from previously negotiated broadcasting contracts and other arrangements. Indeed, some teams may be more profitable during a lockout than they would be during a regular season. In fact, Ric Bucher reported that owners may have given out fat contracts this summer with the knowledge that they will lock the players out and either re-negotiate them or not have to pay a substantial part of them.
So with that in mind, I’m going to skip over the disputed issues for now and operate under the assumption that there will indeed be a lockout, and that the lockout will last until virtually the last possible day that a season can still be played, resulting in another 50 game season. How will a compacted 50 game season affect the Trail Blazers?
An abbreviated season magnifies both positives and negatives. An injury to a star player could completely de-rail a team’s playoff hopes and a winning streak could propel a dark horse into the top eight in their conference. Last year Portland finished the season with 50 wins and 32 losses, an approximate .610 winning percentage. Over a 50 game season, a .610 win percentage would translate to 30.5 wins. To say it a different way, each win in a 50 game season is worth 1.64 wins over an 82 game season. Translated to a 50 game season, there would have only been 4.25 games separating the top seed in the Western conference from the 8th seed. In a lockout shortened season, it is imperative to start out well because there is little room for error.
Of course, in a shorter season, there are fewer chances to get injured and teams will be less worn down heading into the playoffs. However, if injuries do occur, there will be less time to get over them and get healthy.
The last time there was a lockout, cross conference games were sacrificed for more games against each team’s own conference, which means that there won’t be much of an opportunity for Portland to pad the win total by running the table against Eastern softies like New Jersey and Washington. It also means the already packed West will be even tighter. Last season, Portland did well against the West as a whole with a .635 winning percentage, but only won half of the games against teams in the Northwest Division. Because there will be fewer games against the Eastern conference, Portland will have to improve against teams in their own division if they have designs on a Northwest Division title.
Because of the importance of each and every game, there is a smaller margin for adjustments. Therefore coaches on teams with high expectations will have less room to experiment and will be under more pressure to play veterans rather than develop younger talent.
From an ownership standpoint, the cap friendly expiring contracts of Marcus Camby and Andre Miller are likely somewhat less appealing than normal and may in fact hold little value at all until the season starts. Why trade for a cap friendly contract if you aren’t paying anybody anything? On the other side of that coin, the locked out season may make trading for a player with a high salary (say, Devin Harris or a Steve Nash) a bit more palatable. Indeed, an abbreviated season may be a good year to gamble, to take on a good player with an otherwise prohibitive contract and “shoot for the moon” as it were. If the player fits, the team could get hot and win a championship. If the new acquisition doesn’t fit, well, he wasn’t paid full price anyhow.
So if the season is indeed shortened due to a lockout, realize that health and luck play an even bigger role than normal, and remember that a 50 game season just might give a young team like the Trail Blazers a disproportionate chance to compete for a championship. (Editor’s note: 32 games for Oden… hmmm… sounds sorta of promising, doesn’t it?)
Reader Comments (46)
Camby has a bigger contract than Harris.
Washington Wizards Eastern Conference softies?
Oh, it is so on Nate Begley.
We're going to show you ..... Gilbert's gonna score the 50 points he promised on you guys.
Nice article. It would be nicer if you took the time to re-read it before you posted. I am sure you already noticed the two errors that I did. I wonder why you didn't take the time to fix them...
@Sage Silver
Well, technically, the question should be "will there be a lockout during the 2011-12 season?" That way it doesn't sound like the lockout starts this season.
Other than that, Miller and Camby's contracts would still be on the books (even if Miller's is a team option) so I'm not sure what you're getting at. Feel free to send me a message and I'll correct it.
Long lockout favors vet teams. They don't have to learn a system,adjust to new personnel and they know to stay in shape for when the season finally starts.
Remember there will be a shortened camp/Pre-Season and most players will have to use the camp to just get in game shape. Teams that need a camp to make adjustments,blend new players,have new coaches w/new systems are pretty much hosed.
For the Blazers will they be a vet team,or will they be integrating oh,say,a new PG on the fly? The Blazers may well decide to roll the dice w/Miller for that mini-season,esp if there's success this yr.
Aside from what this season means for itself,it will also have a huge impact on decisions made anticipating a lock-out.
Many assume Nate would be fired w/another First Rd exit. But would the Blazers rather have Nate back(or promote one of his assistants) or go w/a new guy who will have almost no time to put him stamp on the team before games begin?
Knowing this roster will almost have to be next yrs as well,are Cho and crew going to be more aggressive making moves or will they ride out their hand?
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